Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46fbdeffa6619cb7e6ce94ba9e2c8c316ff278e6006bf557dbb5adbb3b268e56

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,881,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,032,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,881,446 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 544 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	77,671$6,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,331.92	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	8c	55,870$4,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,332.23	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	6c	53,023$3,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,123.95	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86d…b2dabacked Yes	1c	34,780$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.81	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	4cpaid	+425.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	6c	31,844$1,879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,878.96	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	8c	28,622$2,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,205.89	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	19c	27,586$5,358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,358.26	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	7c	24,739$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,715.09	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	9c	22,650$2,091 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,091.09	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	7c	16,719$1,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,159.51	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	14c	16,712$2,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,339.04	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	7c	15,410$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.49	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes	6c	14,511$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.69	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	9c	13,631$1,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,260.72	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	13,504$1,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,167.74	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…7057backed Yes	7c	13,382$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.26	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+342.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	8c	12,856$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.74	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	6c	12,677$699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.15	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	12,135$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	5c	12,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580.34	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	10c	11,790$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.86	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7061…816ebacked Yes	11c	11,308$1,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,255.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Yes	12c	11,100$1,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,278.58	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…0f89backed Yes	12c	10,983$1,358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.16	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	10,935$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.49	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	17c	10,859$1,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,834.45	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	10,810$1,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300.7	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	5c	9,317$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.3	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	9,269$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.07	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	8c	9,191$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.36	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	7c	8,751$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.69	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	0c	8,400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	8c	8,156$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.51	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	9c	7,890$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.52	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	13c	7,617$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,027.13	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	8c	7,160$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.23	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b19…6b1cbacked Yes	12c	6,983$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$820.59	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	6,140$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.41	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	6,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9f…3fb6backed Yes	11c	5,790$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.61	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	5,506$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.64	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	22c	5,269$1,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.57	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	14c	5,141$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729.23	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	15c	5,131$789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788.58	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	5,117$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.02	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	16c	5,087$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.01	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	5,000$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	11c	4,935$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	6c	4,906$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.93	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	9c	4,549$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.87	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	5c	4,449$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.25	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	11c	4,293$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.87	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	5c	4,224$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.15	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	4,084$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.42	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	9c	4,048$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.71	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	4c	3,939$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.87	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	3,861$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.03	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaddf…c6bfbacked Yes	11c	3,468$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.27	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	7c	3,444$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.79	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes	18c	3,395$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.25	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+77.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes	13c	3,368$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.61	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.19per pick	8cpaid	+394%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	20c	3,338$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed Yes	2c	3,287$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+153.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb273…0c86backed Yes	12c	3,238$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-28%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes	14c	3,056$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.73	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	3,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.8	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	14c	3,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e8…3153backed Yes	14c	3,000$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae83…da1cbacked Yes	8c	2,978$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.71	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	12c	2,971$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.16	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	10c	2,916$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e0…fb00backed Yes	11c	2,867$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.29	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	8c	2,834$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,790$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.9	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes	4c	2,747$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	2,621$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.87	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	2,581$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.86	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	2,555$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.57	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	6c	2,532$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.97	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	2c	2,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.38	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	7c	2,500$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.5	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	11c	2,366$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.23	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	8c	2,351$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.15	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	14c	2,333$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.38	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe258…be54backed Yes	3c	2,289$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	5c	2,275$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.9	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b65…791abacked Yes	1c	2,222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	6c	2,200$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	1c	2,108$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.26	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	11c	2,100$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.54	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	1c	2,100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	9c	2,098$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.51	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	7c	2,095$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	17c	2,073$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.1	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2f…bcc9backed Yes	1c	2,055$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b0…e7e9backed Yes	10c	2,043$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.28	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	25c	2,023$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.62	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event