Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfed306b89f5e404672bea9f29a62b5ffa296700b562b7d435d7810757430e363

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $352,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $150,995

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,545 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa5d9…bf2cbacked Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83a…7d59backed Yes	0c	28,196$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49b0…8f8bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	15,143$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	13,723$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.72	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a95…8d9fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0686…b980backed Yes	11c	6,882$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x881f…dfe9backed Yes	0c	6,705$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,500$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.98	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	4,553$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.52	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,166$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,950$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,788$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.12	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	2,427$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.05	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…2082backed Yes	13c	2,200$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.52	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	5c	1,600$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,533$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.76	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	1,489$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,353$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.79	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	1,309$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.02	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	1c	1,250$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	1,228$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,177$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,126$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.67	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	14c	1,076$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	10c	973.66$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.37	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	10c	934.26$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.43	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes	2c	914$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	3c	848.42$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	7c	739.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.6	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	710.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.4	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes	4c	600$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+180.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked Yes	13c	510.1$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.51	40	2.5%1 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	12c	502.83$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.28	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	499.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae9…7cc7backed Yes	13c	486$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.18	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	469.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.3	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	11c	438.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.17	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x660a…2ef5backed Yes	14c	424.27$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.97	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-92.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	418.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ca…7d8fbacked Yes	11c	383.87$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.23	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	10c	376.22$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.01	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe91f…e493backed Yes	13c	370.23$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.13	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	12c	309.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e1…2ee4backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4720…5907backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5282…1208backed Yes	11c	299.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc17c…20ffbacked Yes	11c	299.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-90%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	288.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3c3…fe9abacked Yes	12c	249.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	8c	244.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbc…6d64backed Yes	5c	238.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	226.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1b…c036backed Yes	12c	220$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e6e…a9dbbacked Yes	5c	220$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	6c	214.15$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…2364backed Yes	10c	209.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7176…2f81backed Yes	12c	199.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe68d…f5b2backed Yes	15c	191.73$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	182$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3316…bbaebacked Yes	12c	150.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51da…1076backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	12c	139.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.77	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65a0…efe9backed Yes	9c	120$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7dc…e407backed Yes	9c	111.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fb1…17d7backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d6…7416backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d7…95d0backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0015…d5b0backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6e…db0bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	237	35.4%84 W · 153 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc765…a868backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb997…f852backed Yes	12c	94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6d…92e9backed Yes	14c	81.04$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event