TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7369…59a1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 65 out of 100; worst Boxing at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT6527.7%18 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 65 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$20
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$31.31
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+150.5%+$122.03
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$110
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.92
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$24.7
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+26.1%+$165.73
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,476Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+32.1%+$474.23
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$658Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+52%+$341.98
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$761Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+50.1%+$381.02
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+33.2%+$151.13
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$560
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$655Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+30%+$196.2
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$37.57
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$74.23
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$292.67
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$80.7
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$90.8
Showing 25 of 65 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.8
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$368.84
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+143.2%+$401.59
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$819Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+124.4%+$1,019.08
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+114.1%+$131.85
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$34
All 10 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.51per pick27cpaid+189%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+111.1%+$270
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+194.8%+$674
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+85.2%+$46
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+131.6%+$553.24
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$578Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+384.4%+$2,221.99
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+566.7%+$339.99
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+426.8%+$696.29
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$134
Will Solana dip to $120 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+132.6%+$22.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Octra FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.1
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+36.9%+$97
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Tate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$38.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.