Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1be9c0bbfe6fa9f580cecc75077ac9bf062c74d45929bc571d785ca9caa983e

Rebuilt 20 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $296,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $198,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,259 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,332$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf59a…feeabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0278…8057backed Yes	0c	6,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	4c	4,285$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.12	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	4,165$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.57	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,971$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	3,515$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.12	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,170$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.58	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,022$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed Yes	0c	2,520$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,429$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	2c	2,139$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.55	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,118$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	2,045$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.79	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,674$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	4c	1,636$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.96	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,581$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	1,551$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.17	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	1,522$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.96	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	5c	1,447$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.23	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,306$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,278$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.02	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,246$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.94	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	1,150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	1,147$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	1,106$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	13%7 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e1…cb95backed Yes	5c	960.22$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x566e…1340backed Yes	2c	945.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	913.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	900$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	2c	863.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	837.2$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	812.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	783.76$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.51	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcfd1…928abacked Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	2c	700$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	654.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes	8c	627.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	6c	600.11$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.56	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	5c	553.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	5c	527.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.93	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x020d…1a87backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	457.22$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.68	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d5…bac0backed Yes	6c	412.04$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.84	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec6…f325backed Yes	6c	319.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	6c	308.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	5c	273.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	6c	205.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	180.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0410…e66bbacked Yes	6c	174.76$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	7c	157.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac0…893dbacked Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event