Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb13366ecd0d5ab897e45c1c9f68a4397b39fded6dd8bb9926ce5350555d7a21

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $373,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $186,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $373,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe901…107fbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	3c	10,747$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.95	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x165a…de1abacked Yes	9c	9,450$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,650$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	8,042$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.39	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	6,943$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.8	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,229$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.56	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	5,170$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.34	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59a…feeabacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa00…eba1backed Yes	3c	3,757$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	3,490$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	3,162$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.65	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	7c	2,933$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.33	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	2,930$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,822$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.14	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	2,742$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.71	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,500$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc87…2553backed Yes	1c	2,358$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	6c	2,357$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.86	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,192$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.96	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	11c	1,917$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.88	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	1,873$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.68	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,851$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	1c	1,768$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed Yes	5c	1,656$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0146…5ddebacked Yes	7c	1,373$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,234$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.02	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	7c	1,200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	1,184$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.45	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes	9c	1,165$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.85	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,100$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	1,096$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.69	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes	2c	1,058$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,040$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,028$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	1,019$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.86	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes	3c	1,007$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe158…8538backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	999.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes	7c	890.89$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.36	67	7.5%5 W · 62 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	2c	773.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4de4…010abacked Yes	1c	764.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	7c	700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes	6c	699.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes	9c	600.11$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.66	75	8%6 W · 69 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	8c	574.88$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.99	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc89…f708backed Yes	3c	506.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x020d…1a87backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd30b…a2edbacked Yes	9c	450$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	9c	444.44$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xab49…e23fbacked Yes	3c	430.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	427.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.82	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3516…ea50backed Yes	3c	424.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30d…8e12backed Yes	2c	404.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	391.74$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.45	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	391.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	3c	388.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	8c	386.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc976…4525backed Yes	3c	349.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.21per pick	28cpaid	-90.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	6c	330.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.86	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3904…b722backed Yes	8c	320$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	8c	316$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	6c	311.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	10c	300.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.14	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	10c	253.57$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc853…cdedbacked Yes	9c	238$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…340cbacked Yes	8c	213.49$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	8c	211.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	8c	203.54$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x980b…1a5fbacked Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	11cpaid	+157.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b4…72d0backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9e2…4e5cbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	8c	199.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	9c	171.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	160$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5898…3dd9backed Yes	7c	155.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	61	11.5%7 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-27%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac0…893dbacked Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b4…032dbacked Yes	8c	130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a34…a5dcbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf5…a6afbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x184e…e8fabacked Yes	9c	122.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+226.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	9c	121.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe12a…040abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-86.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event