Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd958416ab05e989cbc2bddb8fd6e89692b675e126cc0a89d9518634acf7cc2

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,114,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,723,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,114,584 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,039 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes	0c	50,925$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.5	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	13c	49,528$6,543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,543.08	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0cd…02ffbacked Yes	1c	32,958$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.29	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	26c	30,200$7,735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,734.54	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	57c	23,878$13,634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,243.91	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	23,571$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111.31	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733c…851fbacked Yes	44c	22,415$9,780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,780	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	35c	22,373$7,905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,904.52	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	22,347$1,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,543.98	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	37c	20,133$7,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,475.38	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	41c	17,481$7,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,240.59	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	52c	17,351$9,013 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,337.91	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	16c	15,809$2,527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,527.45	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	32c	14,188$4,476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,475.73	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	55c	13,439$7,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,330.42	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	32c	12,831$4,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,052.77	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	6c	12,658$794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$794.35	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	35c	12,604$4,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,358.66	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	28c	12,500$3,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,534.15	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	66c	10,838$7,148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,690.54	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	8c	10,046$843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.46	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	12c	9,547$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,123.65	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	3c	9,307$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.42	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	47c	9,068$4,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,221.15	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	59c	9,000$5,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,298.83	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	23c	8,898$2,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,050.59	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	16c	8,709$1,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425.21	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	58c	8,569$4,948 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,621.72	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	38c	8,214$3,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,119.64	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	40c	8,200$3,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,252.14	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	20c	8,061$1,596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,596.36	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	8,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed Yes	32c	7,956$2,526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,525.67	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	5c	7,825$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.84	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Yes	1c	7,799$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	6c	7,506$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.36	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	20c	7,306$1,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,476.77	114	21.9%25 W · 89 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	31c	7,170$2,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,189.66	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x073c…0c45backed Yes	0c	7,105$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	35c	6,934$2,445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,489.16	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7d…1a63backed Yes	3c	6,858$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	54c	6,808$3,669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,138.98	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	8c	6,382$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.08	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No	54c	6,077$3,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,805.59	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Yes	61c	6,046$3,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,657.81	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	25c	6,000$1,488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,488	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0d…ed88backed Yes	56c	6,000$3,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,348	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	29c	6,000$1,722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,721.95	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked No	79c	5,970$4,727 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,242.68	131	26.7%35 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9b…ed86backed Yes	0c	5,813$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	27c	5,602$1,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,512.52	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	43c	5,594$2,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,430.8	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc90f…aa8dbacked Yes	60c	5,504$3,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,299.29	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.6wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes	6c	5,470$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.04	341	27.3%93 W · 248 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	46c	5,419$2,487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,486.58	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	9c	5,419$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.82	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	25c	5,116$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.63	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	7c	5,089$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.92	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	13c	5,003$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.1	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f99…db70backed Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	53c	4,896$2,604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,291.33	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	24c	4,877$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.02	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	60c	4,717$2,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,807.68	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,667$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed No	45c	4,472$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,471.75	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	4c	4,356$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.03	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes	63c	4,347$2,745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,745.45	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	17c	4,346$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.59	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	43c	4,258$1,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,848.28	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No	58c	4,121$2,408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,713.58	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb7…49cebacked Yes	66c	4,111$2,725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,725.28	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	35c	4,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	4c	3,986$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.98	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	41c	3,970$1,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,621.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	10c	3,946$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.23	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	19c	3,900$722 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$722.11	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	24c	3,857$929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.37	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No	48c	3,850$1,862 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,987.55	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	12c	3,831$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.55	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf6…a960backed No	49c	3,810$1,859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,950.68	112	20.5%23 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	2c	3,727$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.03	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	1c	3,519$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.48	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed No	47c	3,432$1,614 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,817.68	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed Yes	74c	3,379$2,492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,492.09	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-16.1wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	31c	3,317$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	28c	3,295$933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$933.2	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	17c	3,089$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.38	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	17c	3,050$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x657f…45ddbacked Yes	2c	3,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	2,900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d44…c77ebacked Yes	11c	2,761$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	40c	2,681$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	39c	2,658$1,038 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,037.75	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	2,650$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.95	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf815…ca34backed Yes	48c	2,536$1,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,216.05	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+229.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a0f…8f06backed Yes	73c	2,502$1,815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,814.96	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed Yes	3c	2,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	75c	2,500$1,869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,869.34	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event