Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5db778f7930696bc1891e9bed63ec5e6bc0587746d513c40eb67e52509b955d

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,703,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,316,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,703,404 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 975 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9ce5…8fa2backed Yes	0c	100,023$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.98	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	15c	69,585$10,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,538.75	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes	1c	57,434$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.71	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x733c…851fbacked Yes	21c	39,904$8,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,399.99	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	26c	32,530$8,476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,475.61	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	28c	25,729$7,101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,100.53	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b07…782bbacked Yes	0c	25,700$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	29c	18,552$5,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,397.07	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	20c	17,378$3,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,506.4	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	75c	16,566$12,464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,101.31	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	14,567$2,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,802.2	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	78c	13,860$10,843 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,017.27	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No	79c	13,517$10,669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,847.67	97	28.9%28 W · 69 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	12,849$9,449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,399.82	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	34c	11,984$4,059 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,059.22	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	56c	11,544$6,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,028.65	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20a6…ad1bbacked Yes	3c	11,184$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.46	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	16c	10,549$1,649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,648.74	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfe…53fbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…f7c6backed Yes	42c	9,446$4,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,002.48	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	3c	9,000$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.55	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	37c	8,605$3,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,213.24	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	32c	8,466$2,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,741.33	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	26c	8,079$2,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,135.6	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd66…b9b1backed No	56c	8,000$4,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,520.03	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e60…70dabacked Yes	44c	8,000$3,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,520	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	29c	7,654$2,201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,201.29	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes	45c	7,310$3,279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,279.4	114	21.9%25 W · 89 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	40c	7,170$2,855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,854.72	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	72c	6,980$4,994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,985.68	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49e5…e7c8backed No	57c	6,900$3,968 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,932.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5255…d8fbbacked Yes	43c	6,900$2,933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,932.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	19c	6,756$1,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,285.47	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	44c	6,753$2,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,994.49	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	18c	6,558$1,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,189.51	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42b3…25babacked Yes	5c	6,360$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.19	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	76c	6,131$4,636 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,494.8	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	19c	6,000$1,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,145.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	18c	5,831$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,052.51	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	62c	5,822$3,638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,638.02	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No	71c	5,770$4,108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,661.76	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	5,652$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	24c	5,651$1,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,338.54	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	28c	5,581$1,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,545.63	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	31c	5,391$1,678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,677.69	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	33c	5,352$1,778 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,777.82	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	4c	5,333$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.33	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	12c	5,200$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.1	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	46c	5,156$2,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,389.17	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	20c	5,111$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,005	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	3c	5,000$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.92	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	66c	4,942$3,282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,659.69	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	48c	4,669$2,243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,425.35	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	11c	4,500$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.72	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed No	76c	4,475$3,414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,061.08	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	33c	4,203$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	5c	4,151$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.95	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	4,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes	39c	3,991$1,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,551.16	137	17.5%24 W · 113 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	39c	3,823$1,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,503.3	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	9c	3,773$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.24	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0f…8f06backed Yes	37c	3,565$1,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,319.76	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeceb…8d0dbacked No	71c	3,530$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,029.76	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa756…7beabacked Yes	3c	3,117$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.68	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+237.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aa9…c8e8backed Yes	4c	3,064$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.31	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+89.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	69c	3,051$2,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,116.31	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	28c	2,995$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.48	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	18c	2,905$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.56	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	11c	2,727$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.71	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…f31cbacked Yes	15c	2,722$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.19	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	34c	2,628$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.77	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	14c	2,500$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.98	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed No	72c	2,498$1,786 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$711.77	159	21.4%34 W · 125 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	32c	2,480$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$784.36	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes	17c	2,434$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.4	126	19%24 W · 102 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes	14c	2,420$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.77	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	15c	2,370$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.44	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	18c	2,367$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.24	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	37c	2,335$860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$859.68	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	19c	2,263$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.89	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b59…7155backed Yes	19c	2,229$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.54	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes	14c	2,218$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.66	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	28c	2,192$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.29	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	24c	2,187$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.74	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	25c	2,159$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.42	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	20c	2,134$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.01	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes	9c	2,129$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.47	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	31c	2,112$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.71	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…83c1backed Yes	21c	2,108$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,098$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	26c	2,091$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.05	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	72c	2,081$1,491 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$589.83	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	14c	2,079$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.59	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	16c	2,053$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.54	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd345…9a15backed Yes	41c	2,028$831 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$830.62	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes	30c	2,026$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.23	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	53c	2,025$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,082.96	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	17c	2,000$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event