Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa93c74ca31bbc3aade6149fba0042be3712e0d12e9a765a660514a85d67614f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $686,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $437,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 0c | 61,110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…6cc9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1e…e0fabacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,557$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…be27backed Yes | 0c | 14,688$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 68 | 22.1%15 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 14,114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb1…50ffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,624$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 8,615$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.59 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes | 0c | 7,516$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 6,250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3285…745fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,233$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7228…a0f1backed Yes | 0c | 6,060$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 9c | 5,211$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.94 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,063$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 62 | 12.9%8 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.94 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,752$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.13 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 4,351$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 4,049$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,006$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 342 | 3.5%12 W · 330 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6549…eb80backed Yes | 2c | 3,903$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe145…4eebbacked Yes | 1c | 3,847$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 3,650$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,407$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 1c | 3,194$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 102 | 7.8%8 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,166$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,100$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes | 9c | 3,081$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.28 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,055$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 210 | 28.6%60 W · 150 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…8626backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,701$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,559$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa00…eba1backed Yes | 4c | 2,439$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…4058backed Yes | 10c | 2,330$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.13 | 264 | 10.6%28 W · 236 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,215$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,188$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 4c | 2,173$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 6c | 2,130$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 69 | 10.1%7 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…9711backed Yes | 1c | 2,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,718$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…d12bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.63 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…a545backed Yes | 1c | 1,537$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,462$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 105 | 6.7%7 W · 98 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a32abacked Yes | 1c | 1,453$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed Yes | 3c | 1,334$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 11c | 1,328$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 261 | 5.4%14 W · 247 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,244$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 2c | 1,234$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…8538backed Yes | 12c | 1,137$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes | 4c | 1,122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 16%29 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…6afdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,039$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf59a…feeabacked Yes | 1c | 1,031$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae83…da1cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…eeb5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78a0…8b9ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…1a87backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 12c | 993.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.68 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 4c | 962.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 1c | 961.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…f31cbacked Yes | 11c | 918.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 3c | 899.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 161 | 10.6%17 W · 144 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes | 2c | 895.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 173 | 22.5%39 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Yes | 2c | 880.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…285fbacked Yes | 1c | 867.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 828.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…bcd6backed Yes | 11c | 824.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 3c | 815.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 7c | 812.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…5a62backed Yes | 1c | 807.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70e…b5eabacked Yes | 1c | 800.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…f48dbacked Yes | 9c | 799.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 7c | 783.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…68a3backed Yes | 13c | 771.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x769a…0244backed Yes | 3c | 729.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…4466backed Yes | 8c | 726.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 423 | 12.5%53 W · 370 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 7c | 699.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 650$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 4c | 637.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…a3c5backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd635…9f1cbacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 8c | 599.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 3c | 591.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 4c | 549.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac2…4c15backed Yes | 4c | 541.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes | 7c | 539.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 2c | 535$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…1c5fbacked Yes | 4c | 513.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 4c | 503.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.