TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06d6…1bb8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst La Liga at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST6118%11 W · 50 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$4,738Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$4,738.39
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,759Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,759.27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+100%+$500
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$377Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+94.5%+$356.1
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$57.06
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$18.97
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$14.02
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$37.05
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+28.7%+$36.56
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$55.5
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$364.06
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$662Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$662.41
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+233.3%+$126
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16.61
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$17.92
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$26.68
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$922Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$922.3
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Canucks vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Stars vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+67.7%+$67.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+26.6%+$26.58
Hawks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$123
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$208.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+127.3%+$63.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+90.3%+$14.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Virtus Bologna vs. Zalgiris Kaunasbacked Zalgiris Kaunas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Juncheng Shang vs Francisco Comesanabacked Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-02-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$115.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$53
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.