Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61d9eab6a9bdfc9a0caffc55d1837d3fe01a96113f141100805cbaed7b257a57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $536,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $536,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 422 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x671b…b4cebacked No | 0c | 44,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 50c | 38,167$19,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,900.88 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b2…4c86backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 3c | 19,271$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.75 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a0…9b69backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc64…b9f4backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 68c | 5,035$3,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430.74 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 79c | 4,226$3,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.58 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked No | 64c | 3,808$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.37 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 66c | 3,740$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.51 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e0…ede8backed Yes | 51c | 3,240$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 52c | 3,050$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.87 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 79c | 3,047$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.94 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…795cbacked No | 8c | 2,830$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…26edbacked Yes | 51c | 2,820$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 46c | 2,794$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.77 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3c…4c98backed Yes | 51c | 2,550$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 40c | 2,509$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.9 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 51c | 2,485$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.26 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb058…e380backed Yes | 51c | 2,400$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…22d7backed Yes | 51c | 2,373$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…2d7bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,192$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 25c | 2,186$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.3 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 13c | 2,084$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.74 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…cf54backed Yes | 23c | 1,812$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 41c | 1,788$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.47 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 4c | 1,784$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 77c | 1,750$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.14 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,728$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,595$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.72 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 36c | 1,550$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.04 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,443$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.02 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f3…0a98backed Yes | 18c | 1,384$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.4 | 124 | 16.1%20 W · 104 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Yes | 56c | 1,349$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 38c | 1,331$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.52 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…dd48backed No | 11c | 1,327$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 47c | 1,317$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.67 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 62c | 1,295$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.96 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 36c | 1,231$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.19 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed No | 43c | 1,200$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.99 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…92d8backed Yes | 51c | 1,111$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 49c | 1,099$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.64 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes | 32c | 1,094$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.75 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…94f8backed Yes | 57c | 1,055$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 1,027$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.71 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…5912backed Yes | 19c | 1,006$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…8669backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.46 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed No | 10c | 1,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc1…6ad6backed Yes | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.72 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed No | 3c | 999.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 29c | 948.38$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.1 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 73c | 932.58$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.14 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 41c | 901.64$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.64 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 28c | 881.89$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.78 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0874…08ffbacked Yes | 55c | 866.41$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.27 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804c…1658backed Yes | 43c | 831.95$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.73 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 24c | 815.14$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.18 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 12c | 810.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 37c | 808.15$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.31 | 77 | 11.7%9 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…baa9backed Yes | 77c | 735$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.88 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 74c | 728.58$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.75 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da4…2b9cbacked Yes | 79c | 723.71$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 42c | 721.18$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.7 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 13c | 681.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.54 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…9521backed No | 10c | 674.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked Yes | 17c | 655.36$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 67c | 600.4$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.72 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes | 61c | 596.8$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.23 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 36c | 591.85$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 570$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…bae8backed Yes | 44c | 564.61$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…9490backed Yes | 70c | 563.72$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…ba8abacked Yes | 32c | 557.05$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.05 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…1e5dbacked No | 6c | 556.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e492backed Yes | 21c | 550$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 179 | 24.6%44 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 63c | 543.76$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.06 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…8a12backed Yes | 46c | 538.65$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.15 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…27a4backed Yes | 53c | 531.06$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes | 46c | 520$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.6 | 161 | 19.9%32 W · 129 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 77c | 518.34$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.16 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes | 42c | 517.51$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.96 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.99 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 14c | 499.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.97 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 70c | 496.65$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.65 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b87…4382backed No | 12c | 484.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 19c | 479.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.38 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 39c | 474.91$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…6369backed Yes | 22c | 446.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…f192backed No | 9c | 428.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b21…5969backed Yes | 12c | 413.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +702.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 28c | 409.64$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.84 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 27c | 408$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.99 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 55c | 407.56$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.56 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 20c | 406.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed Yes | 16c | 405.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.87 | 97 | 16.5%16 W · 81 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.