TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5c0e…4838

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
203
Categories scored
34
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST3040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$19.25
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$28.02
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+117.4%+$17.61
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+92.3%+$13.85
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$15
76ers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+156.4%+$30.5
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Kings vs. Pelicansbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Bulls vs. Netsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30.5
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+85.2%+$23
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Pacers vs. Bucksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$42.5
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+112.8%+$26.5
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Rockets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Clippers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Lakers vs. Bucksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+104.1%+$33.48
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+79.7%+$26.83
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+112.8%+$26.5
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT2729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+56.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.52
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$12.3
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.36
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+39.9%+$57
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+1,308.5%+$278.69
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28.79
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$11.9
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$160.2
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+138.1%+$116
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40.2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$48.86
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+1,065.9%+$479.97
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$12.75
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$38.85
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+614.3%+$172
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$30.47
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$577Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+138.5%+$798.38
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$63.81
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)backed Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.7
Francisco Cerundolo vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Kordabacked Carlos Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$111
Alcaraz vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$67.32
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14.85
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Alcaraz (+1.5)backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+163.2%+$93
Fritz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Over 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20.09
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Minaurbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$21
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+218.8%+$60.4
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+127.3%+$50.4
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.8
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.2
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverevbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+339.7%+$99.66
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.02
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Rolex Paris Masters: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex de Minaurbacked Diallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norriebacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$85.99
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+721.9%+$263.5
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+53.8%+$53.31
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.88
Will Jara win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$110.7
Will Jara win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$153.95
Will Jara win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$102.07
Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+42.5%+$90.41
Will Johannes Kaiser come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$88.97
Will Evelyn Matthei come in fourth in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$83.05
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$29.7
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+37%+$15.93
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$163.45
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.3
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+244.8%+$35.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$151.35
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$16
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+108.3%+$103.99
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+47.8%+$97
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.6%+$144.5
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+231.3%+$231.37
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.48
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.98
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$13.1
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+55.4%+$17.32
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$75.78
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.3
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.2
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.3
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$39.9
Over $120M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$17.08
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$130.5
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$250
All 9 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+94.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+75.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$39.6
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+100%+$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+78.6%+$22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+72.4%+$21.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$43.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Fnatic (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$51.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$21.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.