TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof Team Heretics, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$713,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$905,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $713,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 370 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7671…7244backed G2 Esports79c132,810$104,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,852.464676.1%35 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Heretics22c108,886$24,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,016.455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked G2 Esports78c61,586$48,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,548.881392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+52.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Team Heretics22c55,555$12,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,222.15639.3%22 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed Team Heretics21c43,311$8,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,909.6221937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Team Heretics22c25,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.9666437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Heretics17c13,106$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.263,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Team Heretics23c13,000$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9906241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Team Heretics23c12,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7606541.5%27 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe700…dc26backed Team Heretics11c12,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.99412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b86…36eabacked Team Heretics8c8,729$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.3825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed G2 Esports77c8,713$6,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.456836.8%25 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed G2 Esports78c8,545$6,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.93138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Heretics23c7,232$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.3514839.2%58 W · 90 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Team Heretics23c7,148$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Team Heretics24c7,128$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.122429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Team Heretics15c6,955$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.6825547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed G2 Esports76c6,696$5,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.081,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed G2 Esports78c6,074$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.1915166.2%100 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed G2 Esports77c6,010$4,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,373.14955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked G2 Esports78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Team Heretics21c5,000$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02514038.6%54 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9560…9467backed Team Heretics22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020454.9%112 W · 92 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked G2 Esports77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.991936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed G2 Esports77c4,981$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.2414761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Team Heretics16c4,942$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.683554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed G2 Esports77c4,564$3,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.6311750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports77c4,444$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.121,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed G2 Esports77c4,444$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.1220035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Team Heretics23c4,338$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.1921939.3%86 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb876…a86bbacked Team Heretics21c4,082$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.186939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Team Heretics14c4,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54077131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Heretics21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84046033.9%156 W · 304 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Team Heretics21c3,703$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.5417537.1%65 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed G2 Esports77c3,489$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.484045%18 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed G2 Esports76c3,225$2,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.9423657.2%135 W · 101 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked G2 Esports79c3,152$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.3912454%67 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Heretics21c3,087$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.141,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Team Heretics22c3,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9914637.7%55 W · 91 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Heretics18c2,841$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.3512539.2%49 W · 76 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Team Heretics22c2,819$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.7148440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa794…1361backed Team Heretics22c2,767$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60910624.5%26 W · 80 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked G2 Esports77c2,460$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.696331.7%20 W · 43 L-9.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Heretics10c2,455$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0438624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Team Heretics23c2,292$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.1942735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Team Heretics23c2,075$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.254647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0e…35f8backed Team Heretics23c2,021$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.8313540.7%55 W · 80 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Team Heretics22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44040651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed G2 Esports78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Team Heretics20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010541.9%44 W · 61 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked G2 Esports78c1,923$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.0828150.5%142 W · 139 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83af…4084backed Team Heretics3c1,704$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1328350.5%143 W · 140 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Heretics24c1,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025433.5%85 W · 169 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked G2 Esports79c1,640$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.8825268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed G2 Esports78c1,603$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.567346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ec…a513backed Team Heretics21c1,600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df9…e49ebacked Team Heretics2c1,560$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x967f…bcd0backed Team Heretics23c1,518$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.14650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked Team Heretics10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Team Heretics10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15042924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Heretics18c1,500$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.61,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3435…1913backed G2 Esports78c1,481$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.083759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked G2 Esports78c1,473$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.0670162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed G2 Esports76c1,460$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.443442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed Team Heretics21c1,428$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8816935.5%60 W · 109 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Team Heretics19c1,425$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.7253640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…1a4ebacked G2 Esports80c1,327$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Team Heretics22c1,311$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.82,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…a39abacked G2 Esports76c1,300$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31222545.8%103 W · 122 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed G2 Esports78c1,271$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.513545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed G2 Esports78c1,239$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.66363.5%40 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Team Heretics17c1,198$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3245344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Team Heretics23c1,152$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26524041.3%99 W · 141 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Heretics16c1,136$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2740237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Heretics22c1,117$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.311,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports78c1,100$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Team Heretics24c1,043$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25043640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked G2 Esports78c1,026$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.2428166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Heretics23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Team Heretics22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf1…afb3backed Team Heretics23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed G2 Esports77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2302,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed G2 Esports78c999.99$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22050569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed G2 Esports77c999.98$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2349741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Team Heretics17c937$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5237345%168 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Team Heretics23c899.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20729940.1%120 W · 179 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Team Heretics20c886.01$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.28360.2%50 W · 33 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Team Heretics23c851.84$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.921,44713.3%192 W · 1,255 L-109.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed G2 Esports77c836.02$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.2836034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Team Heretics20c835.6$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.8299338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57af…cd44backed Team Heretics19c835.26$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.671020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1702…fe81backed G2 Esports78c820$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.62564%16 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe4…d0f1backed G2 Esports80c795$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1624151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked Team Heretics23c777.54$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18253139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports80c756.75$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.842,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Team Heretics16c755$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.843947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Heretics24c750$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed G2 Esports77c744.07$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.144562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed G2 Esports80c734.2$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.844860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed G2 Esports77c733.77$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7728240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.