TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof Team Heretics, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$439,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$473,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Heretics32c193,602$61,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,952.7455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports68c89,131$60,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,522.0464155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4a…7c9fbacked G2 Esports68c76,858$52,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,594.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed G2 Esports68c52,747$35,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,878.9111750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Heretics32c35,491$11,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,283.3290348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x303b…53cabacked Team Heretics1c34,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-84.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Team Heretics32c14,063$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50021448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed G2 Esports68c12,360$8,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,944.4425446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Team Heretics31c10,631$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300.1766437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed G2 Esports68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20016454.9%90 W · 74 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Team Heretics17c7,454$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.7318451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed G2 Esports68c7,001$4,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,240.3126246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e2…2c81backed G2 Esports69c6,445$4,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.091566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Heretics32c5,313$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.591,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked G2 Esports74c5,296$3,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.648056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed Team Heretics22c4,500$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9796216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed G2 Esports69c4,447$3,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.7923020%46 W · 184 L-17.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed G2 Esports79c4,271$3,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.5113355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked G2 Esports72c3,921$2,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.292,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Heretics24c3,837$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.223,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e1…d3bbbacked Team Heretics31c3,259$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.33944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…6448backed Team Heretics31c3,186$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.761625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed G2 Esports69c2,928$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.3839749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports69c2,902$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8921,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed G2 Esports68c2,892$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.441,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Heretics32c2,575$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.041,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Team Heretics33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82548440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Team Heretics31c2,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77514041.4%58 W · 82 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed G2 Esports69c2,420$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.2414145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Heretics18c2,300$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.941,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Team Heretics7c2,120$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.21,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Heretics32c2,100$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6721,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked G2 Esports79c2,011$1,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.211,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed G2 Esports70c1,914$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.5325547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Heretics30c1,793$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.151,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports67c1,711$1,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.4185442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Team Heretics19c1,567$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.5115731.2%49 W · 108 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Team Heretics32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9918945.5%86 W · 103 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Team Heretics18c1,400$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25442924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed G2 Esports74c1,333$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.791,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed Team Heretics13c1,300$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16750569.9%353 W · 152 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed G2 Esports69c1,229$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.244047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Team Heretics25c1,200$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29495951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Heretics14c1,170$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.171,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Heretics32c1,136$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.721,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8fb…d9d0backed G2 Esports68c1,101$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.1810457.7%60 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G2 Esports68c1,100$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3522,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked G2 Esports68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.979653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Heretics20c900$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.72,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed G2 Esports70c839$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.6843947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed G2 Esports67c800$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26416155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Team Heretics31c796.68$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25031849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed G2 Esports70c774.29$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.2919042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked G2 Esports70c748.96$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.221,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1090…3ad3backed G2 Esports70c715.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.6511243.8%49 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Team Heretics25c700$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17368443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports66c678.05$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.541,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked G2 Esports70c626$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.0745344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Team Heretics29c620.93$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809238%35 W · 57 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked G2 Esports70c608$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.470162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Team Heretics32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19230050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Team Heretics32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed G2 Esports68c599.97$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.992,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked G2 Esports70c571.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.436331.7%20 W · 43 L-9.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-26.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Heretics30c560$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1682,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Team Heretics29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Team Heretics31c482.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15036260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Team Heretics18c446.05$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8230421.4%65 W · 239 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5e…9c6ebacked Team Heretics36c422.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1110422.1%23 W · 81 L-14.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-37.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Team Heretics14c384.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5441743.9%183 W · 234 L+1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Heretics33c383.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.721,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Team Heretics32c380$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.664553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Heretics13c371.76$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.582,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked G2 Esports68c348.52$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.5330856.5%174 W · 134 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f76…6323backed Team Heretics8c340$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.221810.1%22 W · 196 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x469d…195cbacked Team Heretics21c337$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.434325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafa2…e45cbacked G2 Esports67c335.73$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.423043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Team Heretics32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ae…04b2backed Team Heretics21c300$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.646842.6%29 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8b…a0cabacked Team Heretics6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1839832.7%130 W · 268 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Team Heretics18c295.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.181,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked G2 Esports69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8646552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbe…e27ebacked G2 Esports72c277.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.781963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked G2 Esports68c250.01$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Team Heretics30c224.57$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6728042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6741…e0f9backed Team Heretics33c224.24$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Team Heretics32c222.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0554944.4%244 W · 305 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e32…192cbacked Team Heretics34c205.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9210039%39 W · 61 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Team Heretics5c203.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.245739.6%181 W · 276 L-37.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa864…e47bbacked G2 Esports70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed G2 Esports70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6026354%142 W · 121 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked G2 Esports68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6478050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed G2 Esports68c190$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.860053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed G2 Esports67c184.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.051,18352%615 W · 568 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8614…ffc6backed Team Heretics31c180.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.826639.4%26 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed G2 Esports70c178.57$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5714761.9%91 W · 56 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfae…8b06backed Team Heretics14c167.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.27742.9%33 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…fd67backed Team Heretics30c166$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.826346.8%123 W · 140 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Team Heretics31c163$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5310931.2%34 W · 75 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x741e…9014backed Team Heretics17c160$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.88121%17 W · 64 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.