TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof Team Heretics, G2 Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$480,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$561,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $480,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports74c99,291$73,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,876.8564155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed G2 Esports74c60,825$45,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,777.921448.1%103 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Team Heretics26c43,302$11,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,257.3211750.4%59 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Heretics26c30,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Team Heretics8c24,826$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.5925244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Heretics26c24,521$6,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,375.5455955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Heretics26c18,464$4,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,824.751,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Heretics17c18,282$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.531,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…97a4backed Team Heretics30c13,786$4,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071.669741.2%40 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x303b…53cabacked Team Heretics3c13,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380342.9%1 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-84.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed G2 Esports74c12,000$8,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12016454.9%90 W · 74 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Team Heretics26c11,538$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00066437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Heretics25c10,801$2,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.372,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed G2 Esports78c9,847$7,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.9418451.6%95 W · 89 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Team Heretics30c7,277$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16514835.1%52 W · 96 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc19b…a935backed Team Heretics15c6,840$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.921937.9%83 W · 136 L-0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e7…4704backed G2 Esports76c6,682$5,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Heretics29c6,066$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.183,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked G2 Esports74c6,010$4,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.0570162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Heretics26c5,894$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.441,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcff4…3609backed Team Heretics29c5,359$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.311827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Team Heretics26c5,325$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.2525446.1%117 W · 137 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Heretics28c5,137$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.9313355.6%74 W · 59 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf9…5b10backed Team Heretics26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3006238.7%24 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa50b…74b2backed G2 Esports70c4,318$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.9610443.3%45 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Team Heretics28c4,150$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16223020%46 W · 184 L-17.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed Team Heretics13c3,900$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4906216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5419…fcb2backed G2 Esports73c3,834$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.433357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Heretics2c3,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed G2 Esports75c3,325$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.9615166.2%100 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed G2 Esports71c3,078$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.7639851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Heretics27c3,052$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.471,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Team Heretics30c3,002$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.1926246.6%122 W · 140 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Heretics9c3,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Team Heretics26c2,728$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.761060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed G2 Esports74c2,710$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.3624065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Team Heretics27c2,503$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.791,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4425…12efbacked Team Heretics26c2,400$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61616540.6%67 W · 98 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked G2 Esports72c2,380$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.4953640.3%216 W · 320 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Team Heretics27c2,224$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.3714038.6%54 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports72c2,155$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.951,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed G2 Esports70c2,047$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.1625547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed G2 Esports75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.0345148.1%217 W · 234 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Heretics24c1,933$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.641,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked G2 Esports70c1,873$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.298056.3%45 W · 35 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed G2 Esports80c1,827$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.1969756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Team Heretics27c1,767$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.6214145.4%64 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Heretics28c1,540$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.931,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Team Heretics29c1,523$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.3612539.2%49 W · 76 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…849ebacked Team Heretics16c1,500$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2445141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Team Heretics30c1,449$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2915731.2%49 W · 108 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked G2 Esports72c1,400$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39895951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bda…8254backed Team Heretics24c1,368$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.962532%8 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Heretics28c1,327$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1985442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Team Heretics30c1,313$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.511,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf344…13ffbacked G2 Esports71c1,287$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.1428166.5%187 W · 94 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Heretics24c1,203$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.892,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18f3…0c20backed G2 Esports70c1,163$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.7716155.3%89 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Team Heretics27c1,115$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.949238%35 W · 57 L-7.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G2 Esports73c1,100$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2972,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce16…d66fbacked Team Heretics28c1,049$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6925639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Team Heretics4c1,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3594134.5%325 W · 616 L+33.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Heretics26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Team Heretics25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25048440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Team Heretics25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25077131.8%245 W · 526 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Team Heretics30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30031849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked G2 Esports69c1,000$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.531,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked G2 Esports73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27079653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed Team Heretics28c999.98$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9940651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1090…3ad3backed G2 Esports72c992.76$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9711243.8%49 W · 63 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf540…cc07backed Team Heretics31c976.06$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015846.8%74 W · 84 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Heretics27c925$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.751,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed G2 Esports71c900$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Heretics24c821.93$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.172,82041.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L-14.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked G2 Esports70c800.3$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.0996057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Heretics26c788$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.51,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Team Heretics26c700$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18230050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Team Heretics26c700$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1822,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Team Heretics28c680.4$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5157947.3%274 W · 305 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed G2 Esports75c650.64$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4585652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed G2 Esports67c600.8$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.2628361.5%174 W · 109 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked G2 Esports73c600$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1621,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Team Heretics27c594.64$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5595847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0f…fe01backed Team Heretics29c591.93$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.5836260.5%219 W · 143 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked G2 Esports74c531$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1626360.1%158 W · 105 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cc…d042backed G2 Esports70c526$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Team Heretics12c500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5852538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed G2 Esports70c450$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13571249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Team Heretics24c417.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0443138.1%164 W · 267 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed Team Heretics27c416.11$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.268443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed G2 Esports74c400.08$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8733040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Team Heretics25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ae…04b2backed Team Heretics30c400$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.946842.6%29 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0535…75ccbacked Team Heretics22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,00949.2%496 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Team Heretics29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11642924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Team Heretics31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Heretics27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad5…ae77backed Team Heretics30c394$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Team Heretics29c377.72$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0574949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked G2 Esports76c369.01$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0146552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.