TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2663…ed1f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
143
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: IPO, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 61 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.8%+$195.69
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71.5%+$457.53
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.77
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$91.84
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$189.57
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.34
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.75
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.86
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.08
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.14
Trump cabinet member out before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$104.92
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.26
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.76
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$180.67
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+53.1%+$149.52
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.07
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.83
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+145.9%+$59.33
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,781Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+34.8%+$1,316.08
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$22.1
Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$25.53
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$61.79
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$131.04
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$198.75
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$543.57
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,342Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+275.8%+$3,701.97
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+6,713.2%+$19,249.88
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$380
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,778Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,777.68
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$440.42
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,885Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,884.66
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$4,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,180.47
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$959Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$958.67
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$9,787Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,787.17
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,073Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,073.3
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$3,251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,251.41
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$448.41
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$162.12
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$5,845Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,844.89
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,959Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,958.88
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.56
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.37
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,263Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,262.53
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$379.23
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.51
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,993Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,993.38
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,762Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,762.31
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.47
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$264
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT273.7%1 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-24.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid: 4+ Goals Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.72
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$3,292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,292.42
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10,395Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+1,946%+$202,281.13
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$443.97
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,491Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,490.75
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,746.25
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$709Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$709.35
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,583Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,582.81
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,699.55
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,965Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,964.74
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.73
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.2
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$296.76
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13,457Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,457.34
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.84
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,181Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,181.25
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$230.66
Will Juventus win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$590.25
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$437.74
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,607Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$2,607.01
Will AC Milan win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,781Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,780.58
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11.25
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$33.39
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.25
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$8,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$8,000
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$230
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.4%+$130.54
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+59.3%+$61.17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+127.8%+$203.47
Iranian coup attempt before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.68
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.04
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.27
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$333.84
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$618.91
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.95
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$387.86
Will Khamenei leave Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.87
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110.04
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$272.81
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$642.65
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$542Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+35.8%+$194.02
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$587Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$153.81
Iran strike on Israel in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$627.84
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$308
All 22 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick23cpaid+102.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+295.7%+$793.83
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.01
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.2
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+350%+$3,499.99
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$294.99
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,054Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$1,010.16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$700
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yoon in jail before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.7
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$158.66
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+197%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,707Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+197%+$3,363.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fabiano Caruana win FIDE Candidates 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2024, EDT+42.9%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$55.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,900Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+28.2%+$1,100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$335.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.