TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$629,849
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$487,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $629,849 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes7c50,328$3,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,667.12368.3%3 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes0c37,007$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.12128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes10c27,866$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,834.224542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes4c23,665$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.253435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes3c22,274$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.35514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes9c15,674$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.315817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed Yes23c15,570$3,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,618.191020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b42…0200backed Yes0c13,577$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda24…c543backed Yes5c12,541$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ea…6879backed Yes10c12,040$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+111.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebf7…0741backed Yes2c11,610$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…a478backed Yes9c11,091$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+115.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d0…8d02backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9591…7951backed Yes16c8,004$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes6c6,586$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.193754.1%20 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes4c6,546$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8928320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8a…9506backed Yes16c6,286$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdacf…7532backed Yes23c5,970$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes5c5,091$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.1432626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c4,879$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3618516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2524…31b8backed Yes7c4,195$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes16c3,969$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.49549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c3a…f541backed Yes20c3,920$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6882…d830backed Yes0c3,435$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7be…c327backed Yes4c3,381$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+142.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce0…0c1cbacked Yes8c3,361$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes4c3,209$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.111118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0462…cddebacked Yes12c3,152$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes4c3,065$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.27812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes7c3,000$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2052520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2fe…64ddbacked Yes17c2,972$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Yes1c2,778$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa239…89d6backed Yes27c2,761$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes7c2,736$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes10c2,520$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.16520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+101.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes15c2,438$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3603622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1fe…d4e7backed Yes18c2,393$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb880…2b03backed Yes9c2,325$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes9c2,312$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c86…5db2backed Yes0c2,305$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfd1…bed4backed Yes9c2,266$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes14c2,117$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9614241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes4c2,060$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc943…c591backed Yes13c2,027$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4760…0a49backed No64c2,024$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.562429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e72…0306backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+212.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes8c1,909$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.77825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes4c1,792$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.042630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c36…207dbacked No79c1,765$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe97c…628ebacked Yes8c1,691$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes3c1,655$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.32425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-60.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes7c1,547$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.343125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes6c1,516$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.581338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes11c1,500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes3c1,462$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.263735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76e5…2829backed Yes12c1,418$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.261060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+66.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes11c1,380$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.655618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,372$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes9c1,356$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202020%4 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-51.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x00b2…647abacked Yes8c1,325$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1854…81eabacked Yes4c1,312$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-41.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes7c1,250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+498.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f81…0caabacked Yes3c1,241$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.231450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+133.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83b8…48f6backed Yes19c1,154$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d0…5097backed Yes24c1,140$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2721020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a0e…e02bbacked Yes17c1,085$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes8c1,056$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2270%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9389…aaffbacked Yes5c1,046$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes4c1,013$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.611007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3d…da09backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f6…e34ebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+509.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No75c999.99$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes7c967.66$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.741315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes8c933$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.362412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…8b13backed Yes21c922.86$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c7…56e8backed Yes1c916.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x117c…495cbacked Yes15c900$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea6…a363backed Yes7c887.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601625%4 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe313…6963backed Yes12c859.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb66a…8f7cbacked Yes5c839.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ab…58e0backed Yes13c835.47$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec06…caebbacked Yes14c793.4$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes8c733.59$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.751,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x889c…f498backed Yes7c714.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+383.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb19…f674backed Yes17c699.76$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bbf…5f06backed Yes7c698.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b94…1cc5backed Yes3c689.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99560%3 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick9cpaid+523.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xed5f…0b66backed Yes5c641.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes22c634.22$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-84.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc357…3684backed Yes11c610.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fad…6f77backed Yes13c586.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes13c563.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.851625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes10c562.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed Yes50c555$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.53948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7948…9917backed Yes9c550.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.12540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb38e…272bbacked Yes16c542.93$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5f8…1b44backed Yes5c533.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.