Us Politics · resolved market
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0befb7a0b74bd24e7de49236b8fdaa8bb8770759a6f2e17af9369b5aed304b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $629,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $487,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $629,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 7c | 50,328$3,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,667.12 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 0c | 37,007$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 10c | 27,866$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.22 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 4c | 23,665$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 3c | 22,274$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.3 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 15,674$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.31 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 23c | 15,570$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,618.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…0200backed Yes | 0c | 13,577$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…c543backed Yes | 5c | 12,541$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…6879backed Yes | 10c | 12,040$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…0741backed Yes | 2c | 11,610$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…a478backed Yes | 9c | 11,091$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9591…7951backed Yes | 16c | 8,004$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 6c | 6,586$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.19 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 6,546$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.89 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…9506backed Yes | 16c | 6,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…7532backed Yes | 23c | 5,970$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 5c | 5,091$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 4,879$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…31b8backed Yes | 7c | 4,195$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 16c | 3,969$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.4 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…f541backed Yes | 20c | 3,920$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…d830backed Yes | 0c | 3,435$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…c327backed Yes | 4c | 3,381$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…0c1cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,361$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 4c | 3,209$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…cddebacked Yes | 12c | 3,152$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 4c | 3,065$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…64ddbacked Yes | 17c | 2,972$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 1c | 2,778$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…89d6backed Yes | 27c | 2,761$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,736$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 10c | 2,520$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 15c | 2,438$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…d4e7backed Yes | 18c | 2,393$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb880…2b03backed Yes | 9c | 2,325$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 9c | 2,312$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c86…5db2backed Yes | 0c | 2,305$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…bed4backed Yes | 9c | 2,266$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 14c | 2,117$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 4c | 2,060$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc943…c591backed Yes | 13c | 2,027$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…0a49backed No | 64c | 2,024$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.56 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +212.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 8c | 1,909$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 4c | 1,792$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…207dbacked No | 79c | 1,765$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…628ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,691$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,655$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 7c | 1,547$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,516$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,462$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…2829backed Yes | 12c | 1,418$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,372$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 9c | 1,356$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…647abacked Yes | 8c | 1,325$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…81eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +498.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 3c | 1,241$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b8…48f6backed Yes | 19c | 1,154$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d0…5097backed Yes | 24c | 1,140$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…e02bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,085$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 8c | 1,056$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…aaffbacked Yes | 5c | 1,046$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,013$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3d…da09backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f6…e34ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +509.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 75c | 999.99$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 7c | 967.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 8c | 933$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…8b13backed Yes | 21c | 922.86$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…56e8backed Yes | 1c | 916.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…495cbacked Yes | 15c | 900$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…a363backed Yes | 7c | 887.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe313…6963backed Yes | 12c | 859.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…8f7cbacked Yes | 5c | 839.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…58e0backed Yes | 13c | 835.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…caebbacked Yes | 14c | 793.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 733.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…f498backed Yes | 7c | 714.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +383.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…f674backed Yes | 17c | 699.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…5f06backed Yes | 7c | 698.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…1cc5backed Yes | 3c | 689.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 9cpaid | +523.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5f…0b66backed Yes | 5c | 641.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 22c | 634.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 11c | 610.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…6f77backed Yes | 13c | 586.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 13c | 563.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes | 10c | 562.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…9917backed Yes | 9c | 550.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 16c | 542.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…1b44backed Yes | 5c | 533.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.