TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c36…207d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,692.98
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$316.5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,678Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$938.59
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.7
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,525Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$975
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+37%+$270
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+46.2%+$1,904.07
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,150%+$862.5
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$125
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$250
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$863.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$8,964Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.2%+$2,346
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$491Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$491.3
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+102.8%+$186.03
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-73.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,410Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+48%+$1,155.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.