Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3725dfa6b17797bd51879ecc3893142bf058be6c9e81bfd72f309060bb387f85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,516,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,592,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,516,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 49c | 357,777$173,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173,623.86 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 49c | 60,425$29,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,974.95 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 49c | 54,478$26,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,705.06 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 52c | 51,314$26,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,378.69 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 46,278$31,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,662.43 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 58c | 41,082$23,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,231.38 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572f…e64dbacked No | 0c | 37,524$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 58c | 34,657$20,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,464.78 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…34dcbacked No | 45c | 34,466$15,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,478.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 55c | 25,222$13,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,239.2 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 39c | 24,010$9,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,570.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 54c | 23,473$12,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,878.07 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 62c | 22,297$13,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,500.72 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c59…c5cdbacked Yes | 41c | 22,063$9,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,017.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 46c | 21,805$9,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,853 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 35c | 21,800$7,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,188.2 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 59c | 21,039$12,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,404.54 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 59c | 20,308$12,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,248.74 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 44c | 19,806$8,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,149.79 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 60c | 14,409$8,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,749.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 40c | 14,123$5,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,686.27 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 43c | 13,449$5,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,720.62 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 61c | 12,499$7,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,825.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…0478backed Yes | 60c | 11,001$6,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,378.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 56c | 10,704$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000.23 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…ebd9backed Yes | 56c | 9,935$5,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,371.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 61c | 9,854$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.03 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 43c | 9,724$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,580.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…55c8backed Yes | 39c | 9,471$3,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,777.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a15…5e14backed No | 61c | 9,004$5,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,492.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 43c | 8,680$3,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,754.9 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 61c | 8,292$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,268.8 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 40c | 8,061$3,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836.49 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…e211backed Yes | 60c | 8,000$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,230 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 68c | 7,290$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 55c | 7,235$3,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280.72 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 65c | 7,106$4,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,457.84 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…b8f7backed Yes | 42c | 7,081$2,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,096.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5307…7621backed Yes | 63c | 7,000$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 57c | 6,987$4,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,007.03 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 6,858$3,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…450abacked Yes | 37c | 6,551$2,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,142.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Yes | 68c | 6,499$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 42c | 6,049$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,540.63 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…a71dbacked Yes | 61c | 5,767$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,246.94 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 47c | 5,700$2,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,021 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…04afbacked Yes | 59c | 5,689$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +174%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x657d…0343backed Yes | 45c | 5,375$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed Yes | 52c | 5,208$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 63c | 5,108$3,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.94 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 5,010$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 37c | 5,000$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.99 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -9.8wins | -0.32per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…623fbacked Yes | 41c | 4,840$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,862.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…2b66backed Yes | 63c | 4,775$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…47d5backed Yes | 42c | 4,762$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 41c | 4,705$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.61 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 49c | 4,698$2,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.11 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 43c | 4,567$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,596.91 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 63c | 4,551$2,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.5 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked Yes | 65c | 4,500$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…8727backed Yes | 62c | 4,476$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked Yes | 46c | 4,421$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.72 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd462…eac9backed Yes | 41c | 4,256$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 54c | 4,252$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.22 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 39c | 4,238$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…e6ddbacked Yes | 50c | 4,130$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.02 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +8.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +376.5%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x3445…d268backed No | 59c | 4,112$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…1b88backed Yes | 62c | 4,046$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…fdb6backed Yes | 41c | 4,031$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,378.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed17…907dbacked No | 59c | 4,027$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,376.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 47c | 4,000$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,117.72 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 54c | 3,816$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.72 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…b9b9backed Yes | 60c | 3,753$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…5ee9backed Yes | 60c | 3,714$2,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.56 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccf6…62a5backed Yes | 49c | 3,557$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f0…815dbacked No | 59c | 3,516$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…5bbabacked Yes | 43c | 3,515$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 65c | 3,430$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.66 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…e11bbacked Yes | 41c | 3,429$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 52c | 3,400$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.96 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…0325backed Yes | 59c | 3,390$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…9689backed No | 53c | 3,313$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…14a4backed Yes | 55c | 3,305$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed7…6109backed Yes | 41c | 3,286$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…383ebacked No | 59c | 3,281$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 44c | 3,275$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.74 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -16.0wins | -0.39per pick | 63cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xa50c…f75dbacked Yes | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…d447backed Yes | 62c | 3,205$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,205.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 47c | 3,192$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.35 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 42c | 3,177$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.7 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 37c | 3,110$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5436…e25dbacked Yes | 58c | 3,046$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d72…b643backed Yes | 67c | 3,033$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.18 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…24c3backed Yes | 42c | 3,000$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 55c | 2,942$1,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…c729backed No | 37c | 2,926$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.