Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30db058400adc67ec707baf62fffef82575b140c3a4b5daab341a5c837a4ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $837,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $811,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $837,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 373 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 133,803$2,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.43 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 11c | 19,760$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.8 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…29c4backed Yes | 4c | 15,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 4c | 14,740$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.63 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 7c | 14,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 11,296$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.44 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…5b2ebacked Yes | 5c | 9,189$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.56 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 9,160$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.54 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…5222backed Yes | 7c | 8,822$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…5ea1backed Yes | 5c | 8,109$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 8c | 7,510$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…2d02backed Yes | 15c | 7,438$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…e89fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,428$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,214$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 4c | 7,106$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.94 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 5c | 7,066$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.73 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d81cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,034$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.35 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,629$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…575fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,036$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…4b79backed Yes | 11c | 5,715$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9f…1ac9backed Yes | 4c | 5,604$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,597$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.29 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,229$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.53 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 8c | 5,180$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.89 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…a60ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 25c | 4,381$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…d63ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,330$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…5405backed Yes | 11c | 4,188$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.33 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6669backed Yes | 7c | 4,124$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.62 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 78c | 4,016$3,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.57 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 3,906$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.2 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…ec95backed Yes | 4c | 3,705$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab0…3999backed Yes | 14c | 3,691$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 12c | 3,300$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.88 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 4c | 3,278$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde10…7e43backed Yes | 4c | 3,132$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa115…11d8backed Yes | 9c | 3,083$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b7f9backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.45 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9999backed Yes | 7c | 2,931$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…239cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,801$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 9c | 2,499$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…586ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,483$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,473$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x860f…ab8abacked Yes | 24c | 2,187$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…cd6dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,142$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…9aa4backed Yes | 9c | 2,112$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 79c | 2,097$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.38 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…7b32backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…102cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,992$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.78 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f59…1917backed Yes | 5c | 1,926$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…8f66backed Yes | 4c | 1,849$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…22eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,823$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…351bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,776$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,628$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd497…29f1backed Yes | 10c | 1,582$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed Yes | 11c | 1,557$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,542$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…92f5backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,447$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…832dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…de9abacked Yes | 12c | 1,417$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…2cfbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,405$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec1a…55c8backed Yes | 12c | 1,379$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…10febacked Yes | 2c | 1,375$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 10c | 1,365$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…9efebacked Yes | 25c | 1,354$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…67e3backed Yes | 7c | 1,325$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034d…d9f1backed Yes | 4c | 1,319$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,311$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…e67dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…1f2bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,211$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 17c | 1,158$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04f…fee1backed Yes | 11c | 1,079$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…f1f0backed Yes | 19c | 1,070$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…a94bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,050$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…68bfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,032$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…6b20backed Yes | 4c | 1,003$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…9382backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…fa95backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…4252backed Yes | 8c | 999.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 6c | 999.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…d442backed Yes | 10c | 989.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…8a73backed Yes | 30c | 986.92$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa031…fa4bbacked Yes | 4c | 966.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 11c | 948.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…0134backed Yes | 8c | 940$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 9c | 871.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c896backed Yes | 11c | 870.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.