Middle East · resolved market
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e34aaa8782008405b5d2fea14014011ddc9edfa4dab90522f7c6bbb6ed14e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $751,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $831,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 458 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 41c | 205,301$83,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,361.16 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 64c | 112,971$72,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,642.03 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 43c | 58,587$25,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,446.83 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 24,047$15,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,896.62 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 62c | 22,006$13,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,422.08 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 72c | 19,990$14,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,513.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 66c | 19,315$12,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,624.42 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 62c | 18,439$11,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,926.38 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…1f46backed Yes | 50c | 17,664$8,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,763.29 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +8.5wins | +0.56per pick | 30cpaid | +238%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…5e38backed No | 52c | 17,388$9,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,002.38 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 50c | 17,270$8,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,678.24 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 30c | 15,076$4,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,562.89 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 70c | 13,012$9,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,903.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 55c | 9,867$5,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.07 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 58c | 8,500$4,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 47c | 8,463$4,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,011.52 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,429.8 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…b20abacked Yes | 76c | 6,837$5,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Yes | 50c | 6,345$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 31c | 6,177$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.96 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…bc99backed Yes | 72c | 6,095$4,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.66 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…207dbacked Yes | 68c | 6,022$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 56c | 6,015$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.07 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…a721backed Yes | 74c | 5,409$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 70c | 5,107$3,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.01 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 45c | 5,023$2,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260.95 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 56c | 4,833$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.69 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 56c | 4,600$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 51c | 4,500$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,185 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…3990backed Yes | 77c | 4,000$3,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…2febbacked Yes | 52c | 3,864$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 71c | 3,591$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.26 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…0838backed Yes | 51c | 3,511$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.51 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 25c | 3,440$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.61 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 55c | 3,425$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 53c | 3,394$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.74 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 69c | 3,298$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.41 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…8e19backed Yes | 55c | 3,200$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes | 72c | 2,996$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.92 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 56c | 2,845$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.6 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 39c | 2,794$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.88 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…52f6backed Yes | 56c | 2,536$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.98 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -9.8wins | -0.32per pick | 67cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 39c | 2,300$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…4424backed Yes | 53c | 2,276$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.27 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 79c | 2,091$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1032backed Yes | 54c | 2,034$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 77c | 2,000$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbe…b9dcbacked No | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,905$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.54 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed Yes | 56c | 1,873$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.54 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…8a58backed Yes | 67c | 1,773$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 39c | 1,688$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.95 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -16.0wins | -0.39per pick | 63cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,610$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.25 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 53c | 1,542$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed Yes | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…a5dfbacked Yes | 69c | 1,450$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56c…29d0backed Yes | 70c | 1,400$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…cf79backed Yes | 51c | 1,373$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 54c | 1,364$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.53 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…4d26backed Yes | 67c | 1,322$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 51c | 1,320$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…457ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,318$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…1019backed Yes | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 51c | 1,261$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,250$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,247$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.03 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…2767backed Yes | 52c | 1,229$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…9816backed Yes | 70c | 1,200$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 50c | 1,188$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.49 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…2725backed Yes | 70c | 1,187$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.67 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c4…acc0backed No | 34c | 1,172$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 51c | 1,168$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 49c | 1,144$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 50c | 1,098$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.17 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked No | 34c | 1,087$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 67c | 1,068$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,067$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…e2abbacked Yes | 67c | 1,061$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae93…7120backed No | 50c | 1,026$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…0c6fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 51c | 976.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.07 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 52c | 973.33$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.93 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa28e…b220backed Yes | 52c | 963.2$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.34 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6f…14a4backed Yes | 61c | 952.39$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 53c | 945$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 49c | 935$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 51c | 918$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.82 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 51c | 898$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 51c | 888.2$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 773.05$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.92 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf072…cee7backed No | 36c | 768.79$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 46c | 735.27$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.35 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 9, 2026?No won
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.