TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2bb…9816

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst College Football at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$158
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+72.3%+$328.39
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$127.27
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$109.79
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$799.7
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+43.9%+$366
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$325
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+250%+$587.57
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+96.1%+$24.53
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+46.6%+$159
No Israel strike on Iran by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2024, EDT+151.2%+$37.4
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+39.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+260.8%+$260.77
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+98%+$99
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+63.8%+$55.93
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+194.1%+$66
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+38.7%+$116.01
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.99
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+108.2%+$1,422.43
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$135.99
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$62.5
Will Trump appoint Susie Wiles for Chief of Staff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$33
Will Florida legalize weed?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$348
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+205.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michigan vs. Texasbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$176.05
Arizona State vs. Dukebacked Arizona State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$165
Iowa vs. Vanderbiltbacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Tennessee vs. Illinoisbacked Tennessee · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 12, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Padres Series Winnerbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+108.3%+$46.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+55%+$43.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Altman say "Elon" or "Musk" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+52.2%+$18.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+47.1%+$160
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday at least 15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+28.2%+$44.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 4, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.