TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$466,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$449,519

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c36,346$28,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,222.3669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe04…3c60backed No79c15,435$12,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,240.13742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No6c12,261$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.1850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes17c9,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,4702343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes52c8,835$4,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.332951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes30c8,484$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,906.0833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes24c8,275$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,275.022934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de7…a9c8backed Yes39c7,858$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,759.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+153.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed No71c7,222$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcecf…e206backed No1c7,143$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x428c…70a2backed No39c7,109$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeade…f26dbacked Yes22c6,356$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,952.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+126.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes59c5,771$3,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.3219348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ed…acf4backed Yes18c5,489$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,488.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+448.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes17c5,375$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,482.128739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831f…7443backed Yes32c5,359$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,642.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc902…cd14backed Yes49c5,211$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,631.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes14c4,686$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,021.02540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No68c4,617$3,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.77650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed No70c4,426$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.71475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes20c4,123$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,298.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed No73c3,599$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.571844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-35.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ddd…372dbacked No68c3,581$2,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,437.871435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No48c3,542$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.716634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f9…09c7backed Yes27c3,457$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,540.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+277%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No10c3,319$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0113341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c3,301$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.19140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…8a6fbacked Yes22c3,203$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+247.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No53c2,781$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.528737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes19c2,604$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.2437844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes23c2,534$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.38560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+105.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes35c2,483$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.045225%13 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0766…73f4backed Yes17c2,383$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,977.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+165.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Yes28c2,363$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.432360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+198.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2da2…0b7abacked Yes64c2,322$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x575a…3023backed Yes16c2,276$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,901.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+507%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9266…7562backed Yes28c2,149$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…20a4backed No27c2,110$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No1c2,082$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.812025%5 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked Yes30c1,975$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.72850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa0…d006backed No38c1,969$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd6…5ddabacked Yes33c1,846$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.961361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick32cpaid+153.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes66c1,790$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b3…bf0dbacked Yes20c1,750$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes45c1,723$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.9256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ca3…17a2backed Yes18c1,667$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No9c1,603$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.74160%0 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd98f…5d9abacked Yes32c1,528$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0096…de43backed No68c1,500$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed No69c1,400$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9661560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed No71c1,399$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-72.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee4f…ad20backed No73c1,370$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes17c1,350$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1252850%14 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No8c1,299$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.76210%0 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No78c1,292$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.471241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick64cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd9…feb7backed No78c1,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+170.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x939f…292ebacked No50c1,260$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes29c1,248$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.9110135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes19c1,174$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.5215227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14a1…ab45backed Yes40c1,173$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cce…8c59backed Yes19c1,154$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.923100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+781.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93ab…fc69backed Yes28c1,126$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes29c1,111$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x13a1…b979backed Yes36c1,100$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+127.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes20c1,075$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.441127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeae7…a48cbacked No70c1,004$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes20c1,000$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+91.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd883…4fd7backed No67c999.98$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7689…af2abacked Yes16c999.89$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes17c999.79$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.832050%10 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No1c983.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c9…14abbacked No1c960.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No10c960$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.860%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes39c929.66$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.783432.4%11 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No75c924.27$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.722025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf40…d23bbacked Yes44c913.21$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37fc…bd98backed Yes38c904.78$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…821fbacked Yes32c866.33$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.491376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29ca…0e48backed Yes78c853$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe19…ec9fbacked Yes16c850$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+522.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab80…af18backed Yes50c837.57$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes74c799.98$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.894845.8%22 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No36c791.91$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.146357.1%36 W · 27 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+59.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes31c754.43$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.8241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No69c753.48$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.946832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes30c750$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5255318.9%10 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed No79c740.47$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa71…8aa0backed No38c714$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes28c700$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5041338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No66c699.99$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.9919638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…62bdbacked Yes28c699.96$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+99.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No60c694.6$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.381947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes32c667.45$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.033912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f5…7239backed Yes22c658.16$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+58.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52bb…0432backed No79c641.44$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…0978backed Yes19c633.95$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+74.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed Yes22c633.24$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked No5c630.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd1…ea75backed No56c625.16$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No77c602.84$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.472544%11 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.