Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc451f03563e65567ee326fcaf2128915afa777cb31805c40ddae0a19cf1013f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $466,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $449,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $466,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 669 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 36,346$28,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,222.36 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 79c | 15,435$12,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,240.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 6c | 12,261$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 17c | 9,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,470 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed Yes | 52c | 8,835$4,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 30c | 8,484$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,906.08 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 24c | 8,275$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,275.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed Yes | 39c | 7,858$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,759.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed No | 71c | 7,222$5,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,093.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed No | 1c | 7,143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428c…70a2backed No | 39c | 7,109$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…f26dbacked Yes | 22c | 6,356$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,952.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 59c | 5,771$3,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.32 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ed…acf4backed Yes | 18c | 5,489$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,488.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +448.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 17c | 5,375$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,482.12 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…7443backed Yes | 32c | 5,359$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 49c | 5,211$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 14c | 4,686$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,021.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 68c | 4,617$3,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed No | 70c | 4,426$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 20c | 4,123$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 73c | 3,599$2,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,644.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…372dbacked No | 68c | 3,581$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 48c | 3,542$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.71 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…09c7backed Yes | 27c | 3,457$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +277%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 10c | 3,319$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.01 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,301$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…8a6fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,203$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +247.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 53c | 2,781$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.52 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 19c | 2,604$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,109.24 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 23c | 2,534$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 35c | 2,483$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.04 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0766…73f4backed Yes | 17c | 2,383$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,977.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Yes | 28c | 2,363$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…0b7abacked Yes | 64c | 2,322$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…3023backed Yes | 16c | 2,276$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +507%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 28c | 2,149$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…20a4backed No | 27c | 2,110$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 1c | 2,082$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,975$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…d006backed No | 38c | 1,969$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd6…5ddabacked Yes | 33c | 1,846$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 32cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 66c | 1,790$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…bf0dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,750$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 1,723$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.92 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…17a2backed Yes | 18c | 1,667$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 9c | 1,603$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5d9abacked Yes | 32c | 1,528$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed No | 69c | 1,400$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed No | 71c | 1,399$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…ad20backed No | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 17c | 1,350$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,299$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 78c | 1,292$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…feb7backed No | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…292ebacked No | 50c | 1,260$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,248$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.91 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,174$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.52 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 40c | 1,173$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…8c59backed Yes | 19c | 1,154$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +781.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…fc69backed Yes | 28c | 1,126$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 1,111$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.8 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…b979backed Yes | 36c | 1,100$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,075$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.44 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…a48cbacked No | 70c | 1,004$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 67c | 999.98$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…af2abacked Yes | 16c | 999.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 17c | 999.79$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 1c | 983.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…14abbacked No | 1c | 960.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 10c | 960$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 39c | 929.66$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.78 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 75c | 924.27$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf40…d23bbacked Yes | 44c | 913.21$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…bd98backed Yes | 38c | 904.78$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 32c | 866.33$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…0e48backed Yes | 78c | 853$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…ec9fbacked Yes | 16c | 850$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +522.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 50c | 837.57$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 74c | 799.98$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.89 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 36c | 791.91$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.14 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 754.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.82 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 753.48$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 30c | 750$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed No | 79c | 740.47$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…8aa0backed No | 38c | 714$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 66c | 699.99$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.99 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…62bdbacked Yes | 28c | 699.96$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 60c | 694.6$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 32c | 667.45$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.03 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…7239backed Yes | 22c | 658.16$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…0432backed No | 79c | 641.44$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…0978backed Yes | 19c | 633.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed Yes | 22c | 633.24$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…e86dbacked No | 5c | 630.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd1…ea75backed No | 56c | 625.16$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked No | 77c | 602.84$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.47 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.