TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,430,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,300,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,430,895 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c55,432$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.395111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked Yes1c49,057$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes2c48,488$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.856035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes5c42,136$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.122646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes11c27,080$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.5434333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes15c24,472$3,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,762.47378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No72c23,424$16,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,498.835350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c23,100$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes22c22,901$5,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,006.172152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes6c20,000$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1302128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…4393backed Yes9c18,899$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.41127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes20c18,200$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,557.2310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef53…9ef1backed Yes9c17,906$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes1c17,752$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf118…1f58backed Yes2c17,614$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.71825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes11c16,418$1,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.073920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes17c14,888$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.95922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b36…acebbacked Yes6c13,985$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes0c13,802$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.027425.7%19 W · 55 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Yes4c13,164$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-58.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b7…2e99backed Yes3c13,076$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.2250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No78c11,861$9,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,642.9115150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes25c10,967$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,717.471070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8cd…02cdbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes12c9,994$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.5321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes30c9,229$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes35c8,471$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes2c7,974$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.842240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes2c7,898$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes25c7,785$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.113630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes14c7,189$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.724433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed No79c7,000$5,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4c…d80fbacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes12c6,110$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.738638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes24c6,108$1,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.55137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-88.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No79c5,600$4,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.0310245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfa…b608backed Yes18c5,566$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes23c5,345$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.111650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes5c5,097$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6314356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes8c5,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.271136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b34…4c88backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+161.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b1f…1ea7backed No66c5,000$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…c412backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c4,630$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.07140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes21c4,532$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.231428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22b8…febdbacked Yes2c4,397$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,188%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e60…06a2backed Yes2c4,395$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e2…c1a7backed No67c4,208$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes1c3,908$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.081361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+90.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes16c3,896$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.193020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes2c3,753$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.17137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab58…f788backed Yes28c3,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c3,600$2,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.6931434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes33c3,302$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.835738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes28c3,208$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.132245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x440e…05d7backed Yes3c3,187$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2df…d9c8backed Yes3c3,184$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes21c3,166$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed89…e266backed Yes2c3,123$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb106…deaebacked Yes7c2,987$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes6c2,977$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.731414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97af…9bc6backed Yes21c2,841$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.89475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c2,670$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.0217140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bed…6afabacked Yes19c2,616$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes34c2,600$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.45547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d7…23b6backed Yes23c2,578$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes24c2,529$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.071723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb75…02eabacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No76c2,400$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.21040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No75c2,391$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.795547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes9c2,382$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.911711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes21c2,369$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5818041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes26c2,326$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.2460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes14c2,297$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.636750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes25c2,296$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.793243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f9b…fa2ebacked Yes10c2,290$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Yes34c2,249$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes31c2,241$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes15c2,207$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.177925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed Yes2c2,173$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes10c2,090$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2e…1b55backed Yes5c2,082$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c7…7391backed Yes8c2,007$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ee2…062ebacked Yes17c2,002$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Yes16c2,000$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked No70c2,000$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c1,984$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.882832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes17c1,917$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.066322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes2c1,842$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+395.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed Yes19c1,839$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.382114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc91…31ebbacked Yes21c1,835$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x111f…af00backed Yes30c1,728$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.75825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No65c1,685$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.992050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes8c1,647$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.294425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes35c1,621$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.711330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes8c1,599$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.771118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x307e…9eb9backed Yes6c1,579$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…cd62backed Yes2c1,578$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd047…b496backed Yes3c1,564$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ba…5b5ebacked Yes5c1,541$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.05714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.