Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bde18e0a0220d1f97173850504a1ed4fa90ef2c6a7bc0932952790053ca0c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,430,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,300,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,430,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 55,432$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.39 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…69acbacked Yes | 1c | 49,057$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 2c | 48,488$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.85 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 5c | 42,136$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 27,080$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.54 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 15c | 24,472$3,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,762.47 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 72c | 23,424$16,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,498.83 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,100$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 22c | 22,901$5,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,006.17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…4393backed Yes | 9c | 18,899$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 20c | 18,200$3,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,557.23 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef53…9ef1backed Yes | 9c | 17,906$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,752$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 2c | 17,614$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 11c | 16,418$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.07 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes | 17c | 14,888$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 6c | 13,985$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 0c | 13,802$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 4c | 13,164$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…2e99backed Yes | 3c | 13,076$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 78c | 11,861$9,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.91 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 25c | 10,967$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,717.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…02cdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 9,994$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.53 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes | 30c | 9,229$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 35c | 8,471$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 2c | 7,974$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes | 2c | 7,898$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 25c | 7,785$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.11 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 7,189$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.7 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed No | 79c | 7,000$5,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…d80fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 12c | 6,110$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.73 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 24c | 6,108$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 5,600$4,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.03 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 18c | 5,566$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 23c | 5,345$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 5c | 5,097$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.63 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…4c88backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…1ea7backed No | 66c | 5,000$3,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…c412backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,630$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 21c | 4,532$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…febdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,397$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,188%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e60…06a2backed Yes | 2c | 4,395$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…c1a7backed No | 67c | 4,208$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 1c | 3,908$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 16c | 3,896$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.19 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 2c | 3,753$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed Yes | 28c | 3,600$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 3,600$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.69 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 33c | 3,302$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.83 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 28c | 3,208$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…05d7backed Yes | 3c | 3,187$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2df…d9c8backed Yes | 3c | 3,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 21c | 3,166$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…e266backed Yes | 2c | 3,123$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…deaebacked Yes | 7c | 2,987$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 2,977$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 21c | 2,841$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 2,670$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.02 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bed…6afabacked Yes | 19c | 2,616$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 34c | 2,600$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.4 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…23b6backed Yes | 23c | 2,578$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 24c | 2,529$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…02eabacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed No | 76c | 2,400$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 75c | 2,391$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.79 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 9c | 2,382$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.91 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 21c | 2,369$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.58 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,326$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,297$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.63 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 25c | 2,296$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.79 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…fa2ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,290$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked Yes | 34c | 2,249$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,241$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,207$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.17 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…18f2backed Yes | 2c | 2,173$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 10c | 2,090$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…1b55backed Yes | 5c | 2,082$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…7391backed Yes | 8c | 2,007$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…062ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,002$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…bb89backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,984$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 17c | 1,917$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.06 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 1,842$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +395.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 19c | 1,839$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.38 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…31ebbacked Yes | 21c | 1,835$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 30c | 1,728$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 65c | 1,685$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 8c | 1,647$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 35c | 1,621$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed Yes | 8c | 1,599$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…9eb9backed Yes | 6c | 1,579$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…cd62backed Yes | 2c | 1,578$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd047…b496backed Yes | 3c | 1,564$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ba…5b5ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,541$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?this page
- Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes won
- Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Dana Nessel win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
- Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.