TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5e2…c1a7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Boxing, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 56 out of 100; worst UFC at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.01
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$927.64
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$429.86
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,465.11
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$461Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$377.73
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+76%+$237.89
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,241Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,291.42
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+155.3%+$89.99
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$630
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.98
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-69.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,562Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$2,537.6
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.14
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,620.02
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.34
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,489.14
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.68
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldobacked Messi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$144.4
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$385
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.18
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.9
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.47
All 11 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$234.35
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$312.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,811Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+183.3%+$5,152.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$122.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$983Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$983.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$214.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$599.16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.