TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$620,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$599,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $620,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No66c110,485$72,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,619.7315150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes19c23,830$4,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,426.8411522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes24c20,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8002250%11 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228e…4f84backed No70c19,480$13,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,793.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes23c19,435$4,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.847521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes24c17,779$4,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,249.395350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes16c17,649$2,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.721233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes30c17,530$5,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,228.756035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No76c13,221$10,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,111.267749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No75c11,502$8,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.5434333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes30c11,457$3,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.16137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-88.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c77…4d42backed No75c11,398$8,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.35966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes48c11,000$5,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2862128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No69c10,684$7,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,274.883250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed No70c10,478$7,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,137.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed Yes36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed No69c9,172$6,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.321361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+90.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa6e…04febacked Yes39c8,648$3,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,365.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes37c8,024$2,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.644744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked Yes18c7,956$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.972630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No67c7,716$5,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes37c7,637$2,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.742646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed Yes27c7,307$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,963.292516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes50c7,108$3,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,538.71662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes19c7,043$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.822227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes6c6,354$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.232133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+68.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes33c5,873$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.542532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes28c5,500$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.445044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes22c5,345$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.8413625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes23c4,705$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.863920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No64c4,669$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.064425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes1c4,552$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes26c4,004$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.563026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes33c4,000$1,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.234443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x096e…9c9cbacked No63c3,371$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed No67c3,355$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.48580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb106…deaebacked Yes3c3,041$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes0c3,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes33c2,184$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.012166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa106…ae3cbacked Yes12c2,164$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed No68c2,083$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes35c2,000$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.723243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes31c2,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes29c1,933$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.783246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No71c1,927$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.812123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes1c1,862$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.512630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fee…ed5ebacked No69c1,812$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.011361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes56c1,796$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb5…369bbacked Yes1c1,732$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd29c…d974backed Yes3c1,692$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d9…0981backed Yes3c1,653$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes10c1,588$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e2…c1a7backed Yes32c1,537$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes45c1,450$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-59%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce14…e38fbacked Yes30c1,437$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2960%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c1,407$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.083026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes27c1,361$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.614723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c1,306$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes36c1,250$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes27c1,217$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.816355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked No73c1,211$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.9875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes25c1,203$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.296235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No66c1,191$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.936750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No66c1,178$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.7215232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes17c1,162$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.971266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7818…d185backed Yes23c1,127$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…9e59backed No67c1,020$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes10c1,016$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.715018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a3…9b79backed No66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+102.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No71c1,000$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes41c997.86$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.832356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes48c967.99$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.642142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x203b…9dfdbacked Yes1c963.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No71c929$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.41757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes2c918.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.766710.4%7 W · 60 L-8.0wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-68.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed No70c899.24$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No62c887.18$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6624433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No64c870$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.2837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes31c856.18$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6618041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3da…4b5ebacked No71c845.07$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x760e…fa03backed Yes30c793.14$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb59…cb87backed Yes38c791.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes31c788.3$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.371618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked No76c784$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf233…6ab2backed Yes18c779.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.19837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes29c768$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.72955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No51c741$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.094431.8%14 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes22c715.44$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.696152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No71c687.86$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5212330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked No51c684.52$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.57925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes30c662.54$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.766141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed Yes47c609.93$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.6130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes35c605.99$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.821618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No67c600.48$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.95547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1568831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes16c593.55$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.312240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No66c585.64$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.53137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.