TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,059
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,059 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf31a…8fbcbacked Yes1c35,000$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes2c6,020$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.921041%1 W · 103 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c4,735$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.91303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c4,430$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes19c2,665$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.182152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+52.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e42…3e2bbacked Yes1c1,708$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f13…080fbacked Yes1c1,583$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes50c1,514$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.5224433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes7c1,311$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9890%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf21d…bcd4backed Yes2c1,001$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No50c999$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.068331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No73c799.48$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.244630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes37c776.53$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5722833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes25c445.62$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-84.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb10a…5b24backed No79c440.65$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked No42c391.43$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.654953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes31c359.3$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.717521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes41c357.48$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.895234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c229.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8949411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes51c228$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7224861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9631434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No35c186$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.96235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes57c176.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93d1…a451backed Yes54c158$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked No41c142.35$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.987925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes16c136.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.912657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No73c132$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed Yes27c123$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+82.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes58c120.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.922147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked No45c111.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.691136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa486…790abacked No38c103.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.59850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked No43c103$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No70c101.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5918041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid+55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4818026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…c0f4backed No35c98.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa43…c686backed No39c97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.171428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No49c92.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.23540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82c6…e6c0backed No37c87.05$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.42825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes70c82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.57339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d9…72aabacked No29c81.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.19785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+70.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes61c80.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2244935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes56c80$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.83432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes55c77.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0266914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed Yes59c77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.432055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9b…90ffbacked Yes48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.940%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x132c…7295backed Yes60c67.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No39c65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.658114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa9e…b529backed No68c58.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.69560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No54c58.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.553663.9%23 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No51c55.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277533.3%25 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes61c55.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7427222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes68c55.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.414238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed Yes57c55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed No42c52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes58c51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3520542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcba5…e036backed Yes66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No50c49.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.583275%24 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa471…c91fbacked No43c45.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No38c45.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.263154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes35c44.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed No28c43.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.371346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9f…d0eebacked Yes60c41.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No43c36.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8924831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No59c36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.921040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes60c35.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes48c31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.033948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb651…2089backed Yes68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.252352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc205…eec2backed Yes64c29.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.931060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c2…a6e0backed No35c28.38$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No43c26.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.982516%4 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-72.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes65c22.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea04…e79cbacked Yes67c20.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.74837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcba…2398backed Yes61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.24450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No73c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes60c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26251.6%32 W · 30 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x07ec…0ec4backed Yes62c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc959…bea0backed Yes73c16.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.