TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$491,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$495,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,351 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes68c65,785$44,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,980.9715150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No23c26,894$6,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,235.592646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No18c24,977$4,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,393.9911522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No16c22,994$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,734.4834333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No19c15,919$3,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,022.727521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No16c12,775$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.775350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No24c12,740$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.33137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-88.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed No34c10,573$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.212516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No20c9,856$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.933246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x600c…908bbacked Yes79c9,750$7,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No30c9,286$2,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,807.193066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c57…f939backed Yes70c8,897$6,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,646.21580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No24c7,153$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.913026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No32c6,999$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.611330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No16c6,494$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes70c6,396$4,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.351361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0808…96b4backed Yes63c6,350$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d3…46e2backed Yes60c6,350$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No22c6,213$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.92630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No31c6,100$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8702128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No32c5,725$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.156035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e9e…1d23backed No4c5,698$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No25c5,110$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.65044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes72c5,000$3,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3903250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No24c4,776$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.582123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed No30c4,000$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.194443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x979e…a60dbacked No40c3,639$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9efa…767dbacked No40c3,639$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No13c3,000$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3957448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No17c2,977$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.922227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No39c2,951$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.742166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed Yes71c2,762$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc0…3028backed No40c2,711$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb9…d066backed No40c2,711$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No19c2,524$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.5813625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1cc…8f4cbacked No26c2,429$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked Yes80c2,348$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.471861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f65…e944backed Yes79c2,331$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes66c2,173$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.41553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed No48c2,108$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes70c2,028$1,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.763458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No21c1,909$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.76728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes56c1,764$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.15580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d3…729cbacked Yes80c1,666$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…9dfdbacked No1c1,611$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No27c1,552$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.74425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No18c1,500$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2683426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed No23c1,450$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.15444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No2c1,404$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.084136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…5934backed Yes78c1,322$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.651471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61bb…26d2backed Yes80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked No48c1,230$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x053a…2f0ebacked No2c1,194$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No25c1,152$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No26c1,148$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.623043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes63c1,119$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.8324433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab27…ab66backed Yes75c1,106$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.55580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No24c1,095$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.767749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4b8…93c1backed Yes78c1,052$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes80c999.99$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed No12c995$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.553138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No11c877.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005018%9 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c853.84$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c77…4d42backed Yes74c827.6$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes76c807.36$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.192166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa9e…b529backed Yes69c774.76$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes78c720.26$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.032272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No19c692.17$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.442259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes61c667.96$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.7322848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No36c659.75$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.294744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes74c622.25$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.7518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked No26c616.27$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.557925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No28c600$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x760e…fa03backed No24c598.5$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.06520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No8c562.67$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4816544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No26c557.67$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2315232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No25c539.68$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.31147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-76.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No22c532$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.219631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes52c518.7$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.523928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked No11c495$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.196251.6%32 W · 30 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No23c477.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.268132.1%26 W · 55 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No22c477.64$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0715431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No16c477.5$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7213919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e2…ff38backed Yes77c407.69$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No20c402$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.923438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+144%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c390.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.934126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes80c385.7$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.626141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No32c385.65$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.812055%11 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No23c377.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.563378.8%26 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+34.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No5c372.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9236…e0cbbacked No18c369.5$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No25c362.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.821947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes37c361.3$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.9210622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8640…dc29backed Yes69c360.92$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412d…2e73backed No16c349$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No24c342.52$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9222833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No35c310.78$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.382536%9 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes74c301.23$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c300.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3813546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.