Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583a505658647660175c2e0aa70b4a460d8c34a6b3f46251ce5f9f46e9886c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $491,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $495,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 68c | 65,785$44,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,980.97 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 23c | 26,894$6,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,235.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 18c | 24,977$4,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,393.99 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 16c | 22,994$3,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,734.48 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 19c | 15,919$3,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.72 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 16c | 12,775$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.77 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 24c | 12,740$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005.33 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed No | 34c | 10,573$3,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,544.21 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 20c | 9,856$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…908bbacked Yes | 79c | 9,750$7,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 30c | 9,286$2,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,807.19 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 70c | 8,897$6,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,646.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 24c | 7,153$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.91 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 32c | 6,999$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 16c | 6,494$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 70c | 6,396$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0808…96b4backed Yes | 63c | 6,350$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d3…46e2backed Yes | 60c | 6,350$3,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 22c | 6,213$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.9 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 31c | 6,100$1,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,870 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 32c | 5,725$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.15 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…1d23backed No | 4c | 5,698$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 25c | 5,110$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 72c | 5,000$3,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 24c | 4,776$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 30c | 4,000$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.19 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…a60dbacked No | 40c | 3,639$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efa…767dbacked No | 40c | 3,639$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 13c | 3,000$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 17c | 2,977$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.92 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 39c | 2,951$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed Yes | 71c | 2,762$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3028backed No | 40c | 2,711$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…d066backed No | 40c | 2,711$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 2,524$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.58 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cc…8f4cbacked No | 26c | 2,429$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 80c | 2,348$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.47 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…e944backed Yes | 79c | 2,331$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 66c | 2,173$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 48c | 2,108$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 70c | 2,028$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.76 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 21c | 1,909$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 56c | 1,764$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d3…729cbacked Yes | 80c | 1,666$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…9dfdbacked No | 1c | 1,611$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 27c | 1,552$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.7 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 18c | 1,500$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 23c | 1,450$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.1 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…0738backed No | 2c | 1,404$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…5934backed Yes | 78c | 1,322$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…26d2backed Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked No | 48c | 1,230$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053a…2f0ebacked No | 2c | 1,194$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 25c | 1,152$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 26c | 1,148$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.62 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 63c | 1,119$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.83 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed Yes | 75c | 1,106$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 24c | 1,095$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b8…93c1backed Yes | 78c | 1,052$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 80c | 999.99$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 12c | 995$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 11c | 877.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 853.84$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…4d42backed Yes | 74c | 827.6$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 76c | 807.36$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…b529backed Yes | 69c | 774.76$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 78c | 720.26$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.03 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked No | 19c | 692.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 61c | 667.96$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.73 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 36c | 659.75$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 74c | 622.25$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 26c | 616.27$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.55 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…fa03backed No | 24c | 598.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 8c | 562.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 26c | 557.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 25c | 539.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 22c | 532$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 52c | 518.7$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.52 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 11c | 495$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 477.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 22c | 477.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 16c | 477.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…ff38backed Yes | 77c | 407.69$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 20c | 402$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 390.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 80c | 385.7$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 32c | 385.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 23c | 377.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 372.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…e0cbbacked No | 18c | 369.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 25c | 362.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 37c | 361.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8640…dc29backed Yes | 69c | 360.92$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412d…2e73backed No | 16c | 349$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 24c | 342.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 35c | 310.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 74c | 301.23$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 300.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?this page
- Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Butch Ware advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Carolina Buhler advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Ché Ahn advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will David Serpa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will David Thelen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Ian Calderon advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Jimmy Parker advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Kyle Langford advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Leo Zacky advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Nicki Minaj advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Ramsey Robinson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Sharifah Hardie advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Sophia Brink advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Thunder Parley advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Tony Thurmond advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
- Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes won
- Will Zoltan Istvan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.