Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d4a41111c33e2488fc49f561d67c87f838096ef22db8a897d32d1cb61d86bc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,964

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x61f3…2118backed Yes	1c	10,800$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	2c	2,318$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.23	104	1%1 W · 103 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-88.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes	27c	1,928$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.42	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+4.2wins	+0.20per pick	33cpaid	+52.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x44e3…e47abacked Yes	2c	675$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	8c	614$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.08	83	31.3%26 W · 57 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	3c	588$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	450.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	182	3.8%7 W · 175 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	180	26.1%47 W · 133 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	160	20.6%33 W · 127 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	246.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	81	6.2%5 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes	8c	188$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	-8.0wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes	33c	171.07$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.16	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	14c	101$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	494	11.5%57 W · 437 L	-17.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	449	35.2%158 W · 291 L	-37.6wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	28c	83$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Brandon Jones advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event