Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ca1634d4f979ba3b1fcb75d1e9516bcca777006019bf5f456a692f37374c3bb

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,606 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd91d…91fdbacked No	71c	950$675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No	71c	852$605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.08	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes	24c	804$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.96	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Yes	29c	767$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.43	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed No	76c	606$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked Yes	29c	496$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.84	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No	71c	335$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked Yes	24c	307$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes	29c	282$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.78	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204d…08cbbacked Yes	29c	257$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes	24c	245$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.32per pick	43cpaid	+124.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	243.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	182	3.8%7 W · 175 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked No	76c	219$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.56	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f1…8e46backed No	71c	206$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	202$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	75	21.3%16 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	15c	190.88$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	669	14.8%99 W · 570 L	-105.6wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-66%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes	9c	185$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No	76c	170$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.8	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+58.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	8c	160.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	160	20.6%33 W · 127 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes	29c	130$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ed…7a3fbacked No	72c	120$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes	24c	116$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked No	71c	111$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.19	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.14per pick	62cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes	29c	107$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.03	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa692…8ec9backed Yes	28c	76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	73c	74$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.18	248	61.7%153 W · 95 L	+24.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No	76c	62$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.88	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-31%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes	28c	44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Antonio Villaraigosa advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event