Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7f825058ce2569c08ecf6847fca743b5e885bea614b2811f065bcab27ea6db

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $131,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $133,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	3c	19,897$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.43	115	22.6%26 W · 89 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc15c…6549backed Yes	4c	9,585$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	5c	5,781$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.59	75	21.3%16 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacfe…9a1ebacked Yes	4c	5,114$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9e…b529backed Yes	8c	4,012$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.15	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	7c	3,115$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.28	152	32.9%50 W · 102 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd0…de6abacked Yes	3c	2,884$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.43	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	5c	2,612$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.09	75	24%18 W · 57 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes	2c	2,295$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…a9efbacked Yes	1c	1,524$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes	21c	1,154$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.34	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	9c	1,136$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.3	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes	4c	1,107$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.36	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,025$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.95	495	11.5%57 W · 438 L	-17.6wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	6c	972.02$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.8	180	41.1%74 W · 106 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes	20c	898$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No	80c	863$690 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.6	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	805$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	107	22.4%24 W · 83 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	700$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Yes	22c	655$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.1	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	600$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	104	2.9%3 W · 101 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed No	78c	597$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.34	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-70.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	22c	587$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.14	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes	7c	574.45$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.23	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No	78c	572$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.84	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed No	79c	555$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No	79c	527$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.67	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	69c	472$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.16	248	61.7%153 W · 95 L	+24.3wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes	2c	445$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes	8c	410$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.17per pick	35cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes	6c	400$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	62	51.6%32 W · 30 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	4c	400$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+44.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	81	6.2%5 W · 76 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes	20c	398$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.6	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No	80c	398$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.6	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.29per pick	47cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes	26c	359.95$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.89	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes	3c	353.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	79	25.3%20 W · 59 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-45%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c42…488fbacked Yes	6c	345.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed No	75c	299.51$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.27	229	48.9%112 W · 117 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes	21c	295$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.95	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No	79c	295$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.95	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+84%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x203b…9dfdbacked Yes	17c	240$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes	5c	220$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.19per pick	26cpaid	+158.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41a3…46b8backed Yes	9c	210.78$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa848…8a1fbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf23e…aec3backed Yes	15c	171$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes	20c	151.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac2…b483backed Yes	12c	130$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	19c	125$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	196	43.4%85 W · 111 L	+15.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes	9c	123$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d1…a451backed No	73c	107$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.42	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	183	10.4%19 W · 164 L	-9.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No	72c	100$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	65cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	75	33.3%25 W · 50 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe151…a852backed No	75c	99.52$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.88	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes	19c	98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No	79c	95$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.95	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	22c	90$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	180	26.1%47 W · 133 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Yes	30c	83.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes	24c	80.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	62	21%13 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes	25c	76.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes	37c	73.43$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	165	44.2%73 W · 92 L	+10.8wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Yes	15c	71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.9wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes	25c	70$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa471…c91fbacked No	61c	65.13$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.13	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a2…3dfcbacked No	78c	61$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.42	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+214.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	26c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes	34c	57.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes	19c	53.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x091c…ab37backed No	67c	53.16$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.54	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+52.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	21c	49.97$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	205	42%86 W · 119 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed No	62c	48.16$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.06	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-3.9wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes	26c	47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-4.8wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes	29c	46.14$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed No	64c	44$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.85	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	28c	43.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	136	25.7%35 W · 101 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-30%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No	80c	35$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	79c	33.81$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.99	32	75%24 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Yes	41c	25.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No	75c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.17	67	10.4%7 W · 60 L	-8.0wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf924…435bbacked No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No	65c	18.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.35	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No	78c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.3	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No	74c	14.86$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.86	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event