TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$203,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea2f…a8efbacked No4c23,479$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.91233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+129.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No8c8,846$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.075044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No6c4,300$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.862123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No5c3,550$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.32227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c3,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed No8c2,580$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.61618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked No11c2,455$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.14953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No8c1,826$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.773348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No50c1,809$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.8834333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No5c1,500$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.54330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c1…f022backed No56c1,418$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick43cpaid+114%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No18c1,340$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.994630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes79c1,313$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.597448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed No14c1,200$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.923246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc301…6760backed No1c1,192$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes80c1,162$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.561861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked No22c1,153$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed No8c1,144$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.572133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+68.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No19c1,035$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.513145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9640…d852backed Yes64c916.47$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No12c909.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.513919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9236…e0cbbacked No29c862.6$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes77c857.52$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes31c796.93$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.377521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No6c779.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick16cpaid+141.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0e7a…8ba1backed No10c766.22$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1206…1362backed Yes68c748.54$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.945444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No9c700$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked No47c668.89$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.437925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3da…4b5ebacked Yes77c646.74$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c641.32$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.1818026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No6c625.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4611522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes79c601.53$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.033438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+144%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No18c599.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.824433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes70c565.54$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.226141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x381b…e2d3backed No2c522.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No33c472.14$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6415232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c62…3bb8backed No5c408.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c360.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.12611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes33c360.36$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.361735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92fc…1d78backed No9c333.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes6c331.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.387339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No48c312.11$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.93955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid+6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c285.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.431823.8%7 W · 175 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…3b26backed Yes74c277.13$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9c…be4dbacked Yes34c273$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.181127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes73c258$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed No6c237.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.342630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No15c232.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8949411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dbe…c7bdbacked Yes71c230.57$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No14c220$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.793043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Yes55c196.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.933378.8%26 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+34.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No14c196.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.353026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes24c191$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.163026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes8c137.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.877524%18 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa9e…b529backed No58c136.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes32c135.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes10c124.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3218310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No9c122.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.047324.7%18 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No38c118.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6519631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes31c113.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6634129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0306…a81ebacked No15c108.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.231145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe151…a852backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7fda…7453backed No11c95.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No24c93.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.421163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No76c83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4224861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1df…cb3bbacked Yes73c68.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No29c67.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8816020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No21c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.593732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-36.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No35c54.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.166235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x211b…1872backed No77c45.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.59520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-59.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes39c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.637843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No61c45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.638343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7577…170bbacked Yes61c40.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5428…38ecbacked No42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes69c34.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ca…8479backed Yes54c30.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.034957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes61c29.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6910361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No74c29.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.431090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+42.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x747b…a2d4backed Yes36c28$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.891931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fe…6800backed Yes77c25.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes79c16.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.344126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes64c15.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.689578.9%75 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No69c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.341526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.