TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x695c…10a1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
489
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Commodities, grading 66 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 66 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
Middle East — the 202 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.62
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.3
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+198.8%+$421.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.56
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.38
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$102.34
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+285.7%+$568.43
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+327.1%+$433.93
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.51
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.6
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+171.5%+$106.75
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.91
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.82
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.67
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.52
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.88
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.08
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.72
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.78
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+278.7%+$382.18
Showing 25 of 202 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+300%+$117.75
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.85
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.66
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$44.8
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.01
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.53
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.99
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.95
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+158.7%+$50.15
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.44
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.63
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.29
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.5
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.84
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.41
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.86
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.67
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.85
X Money released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+217.3%+$293.11
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.85
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$24.36
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$30.25
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.95
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.92
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT4852.1%25 W · 23 L+10.4wins+0.22per pick30cpaid+59.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
Commodities — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+438.1%+$1,094.24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+225%+$266.27
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$75.03
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$27
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.55
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+213.2%+$198.76
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+204.2%+$165.8
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.39
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.24
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.15
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$20.14
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.95
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$27
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+255.7%+$429.18
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+199%+$233.22
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+222.7%+$356.89
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.67
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.96
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$25.37
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$22
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$19.24
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.42
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.23
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3647.2%17 W · 19 L+6.8wins+0.19per pick28cpaid+57.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
World Politics — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$84.6
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+145.7%+$49.25
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+329.3%+$786.98
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+253.9%+$142.05
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$76.65
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$88.44
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+270.7%+$269.45
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$41.08
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.36
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$107.11
Will Seán Kyne win the 2026 Galway West by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.2
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.21
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.73
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$37.2
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+351.6%+$1,139.05
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$651Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$651.45
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.18
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.43
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+153.9%+$47.88
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.08
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.85
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.97
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+175.6%+$153.57
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.63
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.38
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.95
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.28
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+191.6%+$212.42
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+209.1%+$110.93
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+219.2%+$37.77
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$38.97
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.68
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$27.3
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.92
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.92
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.39
Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$99.25
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$49.37
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.27
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$33.78
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$69.12
Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$49.33
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+327.5%+$80.44
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+519.5%+$426.84
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.95
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$19.24
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.13
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.97
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.88
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.86
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+313.1%+$198.58
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.88
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$56.05
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+197.9%+$23.25
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40.69
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+522.5%+$327.76
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$65.7
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$49.29
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$34.52
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.08
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+460.1%+$158.54
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$42.78
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$29.79
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$16.53
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+326.3%+$63.53
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Raji Rab advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.88
Will Thien Ho advance from the CA-06 primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.51
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$91.81
Will Frank Pallone Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for NJ-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.73
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.9
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.86
Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.14
Will Scott Colom be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Mississippi?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.74
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$99.2
Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$87.59
Will Chris Gober be the Republican Nominee for TX-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.84
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$54.9
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.9
Will Steve Toth be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$99.28
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.53
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.64
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.24
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$28.47
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.81
Major US official out by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$278.9
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$39.04
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+197.5%+$94.27
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$22
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.05
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.4
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.19
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+329.8%+$441.87
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+380.7%+$83.95
Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+217.6%+$25.35
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+274.6%+$94.06
Will Bill or Hillary publicly testify before congress by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+303.6%+$38.87
All 17 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.65
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+313.8%+$332.42
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$38.69
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.38
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.58
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.06
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+400%+$81.6
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.12
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.69
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+157.9%+$71.02
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+311%+$1,009.6
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.44
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.85
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick26cpaid+99.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$31.28
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$14.85
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.74
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+270.3%+$91.09
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$29.58
Will "Wuthering Heights" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$18.55
Will "Overboard" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (February 10)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+346.5%+$84.58
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+343%+$86.72
Will "The Strangers - Chapter 3" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25.44
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $2M committed to the ALIGN public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.7
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.83
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$22.4
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$402Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$402.12
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+396.4%+$961.58
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+276.9%+$465.76
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$142.27
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+171.4%+$77.05
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.95
Will Justin Bieber feature Billie Eilish during his Coachella performances?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.48
Will Justin Bieber drop out as a Coachella 2026 Headliner?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$24.36
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.56
Will 'The Romantic' debut week album sales be between 150k and 200k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$67.02
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$24.3
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.26
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.75
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.75
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+150%+$18.6
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.56
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$19.24
Will Agomab Therapeutics NV's market cap be between $700M and $800M at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$105
Will Once Upon a Farm's market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+137.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+94.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+159.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+136.1%+$67.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$59.89
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.