Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,888,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,935,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,888,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 9,448 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 78c | 4,206,707$3,277,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929,293.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 19c | 3,545,576$679,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679,666.11 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,939,768$500,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500,226.64 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 24c | 2,400,083$569,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569,453.82 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 11c | 2,103,301$231,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231,510.34 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,515,945$462,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462,470.29 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 77c | 1,321,594$1,016,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305,083.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 16c | 1,145,406$187,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187,495.09 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 23c | 1,088,635$246,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246,348.68 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 18c | 1,074,123$188,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188,219.53 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 16c | 955,332$149,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149,084.14 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 15c | 952,081$141,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141,082.89 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 16c | 811,142$125,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125,968.31 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 28c | 809,850$224,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224,684.37 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 28c | 769,347$212,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212,390.88 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 13c | 759,099$98,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,604.97 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 694,636$191,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191,274.32 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 18c | 641,100$116,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,112.27 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 640,182$9,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,309.58 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 9c | 600,314$52,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,987.43 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 23c | 565,676$128,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,390.43 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 16c | 515,309$82,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,380.99 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 24c | 512,423$123,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123,795.51 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 23c | 512,325$116,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,566.68 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 22c | 498,239$110,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,040.99 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 27c | 479,708$127,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127,617.18 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 25c | 476,794$119,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119,453.94 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes | 20c | 472,183$94,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,757.38 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +406.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed Yes | 10c | 470,121$49,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,294.48 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 59c | 430,143$255,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174,287.05 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 15c | 424,131$63,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,747.72 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked Yes | 13c | 421,819$55,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,634.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 30c | 407,280$122,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,350.79 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…35e6backed Yes | 17c | 397,620$67,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,595.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…bfcebacked Yes | 13c | 395,970$51,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,160.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 18c | 368,672$66,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,871.74 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 18c | 367,971$65,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,071.83 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 23c | 360,999$83,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,858.41 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 30c | 360,742$107,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107,597.69 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 31c | 355,110$109,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,577.73 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 41c | 355,096$144,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144,306.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 13c | 327,485$43,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,602.66 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 62c | 321,526$200,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121,525.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 20c | 301,751$61,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,386.24 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 34c | 284,382$96,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,446.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 22c | 273,056$61,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,325 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 14c | 272,577$38,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,070.1 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 23c | 267,925$62,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,698.52 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 12c | 266,923$31,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,549.85 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 18c | 265,911$48,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,663.79 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 24c | 264,293$64,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,110.6 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 66c | 260,353$170,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170,918.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 21c | 248,778$52,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,625.68 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 28c | 246,489$68,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,399.05 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 24c | 238,985$57,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,252.06 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 25c | 236,548$59,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,962.89 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 16c | 235,148$38,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,593.72 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 75c | 232,459$175,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,049.18 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 33c | 227,861$75,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,442.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 29c | 218,235$63,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,762.68 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 29c | 213,425$62,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,190.59 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…dad9backed Yes | 14c | 205,685$27,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,985.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 22c | 203,813$44,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,270.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 14c | 197,249$28,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,187.21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 16c | 192,866$31,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,815.04 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 6c | 192,209$10,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,599 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 31c | 190,991$58,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,346.98 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 185,194$35,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,456.91 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 15c | 180,704$27,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,303.12 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 26c | 178,443$46,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,567.94 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 18c | 174,307$31,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,244.61 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 13c | 168,589$22,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,055.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 27c | 161,678$43,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,273.76 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 17c | 157,004$26,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,340.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed No | 69c | 155,212$106,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,414.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 16c | 153,952$23,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,975.23 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 20c | 151,728$30,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,121.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 31c | 148,218$45,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,720.48 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 12c | 144,763$18,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,001.55 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 22c | 143,032$31,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,145.76 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 21c | 135,953$28,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,130.97 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 28c | 135,218$37,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,930.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 11c | 134,438$14,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,254.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 19c | 132,915$25,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,494.69 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 22c | 132,262$29,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,338.34 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…b4b6backed Yes | 33c | 129,528$42,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,449.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed No | 80c | 128,140$101,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,145.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…369ebacked No | 73c | 126,088$91,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,460.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed No | 64c | 125,635$80,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,608.14 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 23c | 125,326$28,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,534.83 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 76c | 117,813$89,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,870.51 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…384ebacked No | 65c | 113,883$74,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,377.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…ffcdbacked Yes | 19c | 113,788$21,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,873.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 36c | 113,250$41,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,319.94 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 29c | 113,150$32,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,282.79 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked No | 67c | 110,000$74,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,964.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 21c | 109,465$23,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,054.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 24c | 108,891$26,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,666.04 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed No | 71c | 108,706$77,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,263.15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked Yes | 14c | 108,222$15,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,040.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.