Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366f89649caea042c96ee741b185461ec7faa408a2664ec44469a0061924b537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,099,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,023,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,099,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,734 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 78c | 646,655$506,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140,288.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 9c | 614,934$56,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,316.94 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 7c | 573,694$37,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,714.55 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 529,912$29,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,070.23 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 10c | 495,756$52,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,035.17 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 5c | 414,129$21,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,847.75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 401,231$6,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,146 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 349,050$31,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,237.46 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 6c | 300,000$17,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,999.99 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 12c | 265,769$31,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,544.58 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 30c | 244,692$73,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,843.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 12c | 219,086$25,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,386.77 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 5c | 217,899$10,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,894.95 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 9c | 212,514$19,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,046.08 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 9c | 205,378$19,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,304.9 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…ffcdbacked Yes | 5c | 199,931$10,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,175.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 7c | 199,279$13,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,654.65 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 5c | 198,703$9,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,171.24 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 13c | 187,052$23,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,957.28 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 7c | 178,999$11,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,659.83 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 9c | 160,100$14,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,189.82 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 4c | 159,551$6,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,814.93 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 12c | 159,049$19,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,875.86 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…8ce2backed Yes | 4c | 157,110$6,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,991.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…4645backed Yes | 0c | 156,440$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 24cpaid | +392.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 13c | 153,563$20,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,181.98 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 144,587$22,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,653.96 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 1c | 137,704$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.3 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb94…494fbacked Yes | 0c | 136,699$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 116,338$8,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,590.31 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…d936backed Yes | 3c | 114,276$3,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 13c | 113,712$15,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,192.67 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 1c | 106,023$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 11c | 101,104$11,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,565.57 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 1c | 91,905$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.58 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…632bbacked Yes | 5c | 91,500$4,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,855 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 38c | 90,969$34,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,895.32 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 30c | 80,821$23,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,997.74 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b0…6182backed Yes | 9c | 77,000$6,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,949.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 34c | 72,162$24,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,715.68 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 11c | 70,643$7,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…9aebbacked Yes | 2c | 68,000$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +837.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 12c | 67,042$8,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,123.34 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 7c | 66,061$4,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,731.99 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 61,592$4,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,545.55 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 10c | 56,000$5,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,770 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…dac7backed Yes | 23c | 47,764$10,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,765.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed No | 78c | 47,435$36,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,435.7 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 17c | 45,491$7,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,956.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 17c | 45,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,499.98 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 5c | 44,490$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252.54 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…b4b4backed Yes | 11c | 42,708$4,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,657.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 14c | 42,349$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,900.24 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 23c | 41,501$9,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,380.96 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…7a51backed Yes | 4c | 40,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 20c | 39,161$7,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,667.95 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 38,275$7,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,105.27 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 37,860$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.64 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 3c | 37,500$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +183.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 10c | 34,415$3,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,436.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…b18fbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 27c | 32,661$8,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,756.52 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 23c | 32,609$7,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,377.27 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 22c | 32,409$7,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,274.42 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 15c | 32,388$4,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,884.52 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 12c | 32,200$3,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,842 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 11c | 31,675$3,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.91 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 21c | 30,755$6,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,510.97 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 23c | 30,644$7,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,023.56 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 21c | 30,000$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,399.99 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 21c | 30,000$6,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,319.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 28c | 27,610$7,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700.81 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed Yes | 4c | 27,341$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 72c | 26,659$19,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,440.73 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 70c | 26,000$18,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…b46abacked No | 63c | 25,804$16,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,490.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 21c | 25,635$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,502.97 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…93eabacked No | 64c | 25,548$16,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,156.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 27c | 25,255$6,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,894.32 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 65c | 25,166$16,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,870.3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 24,235$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.44 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 25c | 23,371$5,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841.05 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 23,067$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.1 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 17c | 22,617$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,897.31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 22,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 7c | 22,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…f569backed Yes | 9c | 21,573$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cf…0cebbacked No | 73c | 21,106$15,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,666.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 27c | 20,141$5,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,521.1 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…39a5backed No | 67c | 20,000$13,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 20c | 19,504$3,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,808.06 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e34…b86fbacked Yes | 5c | 19,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e4…732fbacked Yes | 3c | 18,696$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 20c | 18,299$3,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.8 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 30c | 17,705$5,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,310.05 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 12c | 17,591$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.98 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…59a1backed Yes | 7c | 17,143$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +235.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 6c | 16,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 4c | 16,069$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 7c | 15,877$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.59 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.