Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5331256bff341491df0656772c4245a99a483c58eeda2faa70fa6bb8b7b0405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,171,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,143,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,171,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 3c | 313,423$9,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,256.67 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 1c | 100,432$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.89 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 3c | 89,129$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.33 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 87,327$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.84 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 8c | 85,117$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,750 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 5c | 56,131$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.52 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 0c | 47,819$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 40,000$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.96 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 0c | 38,889$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 1c | 33,749$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.26 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 3c | 31,939$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 2c | 29,080$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.13 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 2c | 26,000$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.26 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,921$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…4c4dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 2c | 20,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 1c | 17,067$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.75 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 0c | 14,586$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 3c | 13,783$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.85 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 5c | 11,937$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.09 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fc…90fabacked Yes | 1c | 11,275$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…64d9backed Yes | 3c | 10,683$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 0c | 10,501$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…c983backed Yes | 3c | 10,010$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…d498backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 7c | 9,915$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.87 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 9,644$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.32 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 9,005$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 2c | 8,510$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.61 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,446$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…660ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,466$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 7,399$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes | 2c | 7,258$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.07 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…5025backed Yes | 6c | 6,714$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +491.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 3c | 6,500$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked Yes | 2c | 6,228$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 5c | 5,933$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.41 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…a1b4backed Yes | 3c | 5,800$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 2c | 5,660$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 3c | 5,505$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…d7f8backed Yes | 3c | 4,913$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 3c | 4,709$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 2c | 4,700$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 3c | 4,600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…fc8abacked Yes | 1c | 4,552$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 1c | 4,429$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 4,400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…0edcbacked Yes | 2c | 4,345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 3c | 3,982$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 3c | 3,966$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 4c | 3,783$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.13 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 3,733$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 3c | 3,524$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.88 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,524$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 3,435$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 3c | 3,098$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…908abacked Yes | 4c | 3,067$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 3c | 2,975$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…564dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,941$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 4c | 2,714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 2,625$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 3c | 2,548$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 2c | 2,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 2c | 2,259$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed Yes | 3c | 2,001$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…485bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,954$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,832$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed Yes | 1c | 1,821$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 3c | 1,790$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,600$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c5…c757backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 3c | 1,559$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…3b8fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,461$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…ee8ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,455$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…0fe1backed Yes | 4c | 1,406$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…f125backed Yes | 1c | 1,243$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…e4c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,205$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a59…5b52backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…3057backed Yes | 4c | 1,076$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2231…3ed6backed Yes | 4c | 1,039$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…273ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 18cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 2c | 960$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 2c | 896.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 10c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 4c | 797.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…6963backed Yes | 3c | 697$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.