Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2509daa236d3aea83c910be4e00f50027dd72e6fa0d350536d07cd079f58d7ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,650,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,927,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,650,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 7c | 230,000$15,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,020.95 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 2c | 159,202$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 2c | 97,307$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.91 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…5948backed Yes | 0c | 84,935$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed Yes | 8c | 70,402$5,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,314.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 12c | 52,894$6,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,181.95 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 10c | 51,052$5,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,083.56 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…2649backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 10c | 40,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 8c | 28,875$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.98 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 11c | 27,154$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.72 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 3c | 27,000$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 11c | 26,950$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.54 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes | 1c | 20,953$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +406.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 12c | 20,095$2,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.45 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 19,877$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 7c | 17,814$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.57 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 8c | 17,544$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.96 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 9c | 17,509$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.5 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 4c | 15,267$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.61 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 15c | 15,004$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.65 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.49 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,004$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 13c | 12,885$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.18 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 13c | 12,120$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.64 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 2c | 10,500$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 8c | 10,019$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.49 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 13c | 9,063$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.29 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…30a4backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…fb62backed Yes | 1c | 8,125$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 7,700$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,470$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.8 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,189$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 0c | 7,020$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 3c | 6,773$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.89 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 8c | 6,250$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…e15abacked Yes | 5c | 6,068$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 16c | 5,775$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.08 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…660ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…a1b4backed Yes | 2c | 5,484$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 5,290$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.41 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…17febacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 10c | 5,000$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 3c | 4,865$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 7c | 4,794$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.58 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 6c | 4,682$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.42 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 9c | 4,582$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.12 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 8c | 4,264$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.72 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…6edebacked Yes | 9c | 3,700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 8c | 3,209$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.61 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 16c | 3,193$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 3c | 3,146$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 10c | 3,023$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 1c | 3,004$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 2,817$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6655backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…5e9bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…86e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,961$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 9c | 1,667$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,555$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.62 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 11c | 1,505$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…4c4dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,450$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81aa…c075backed No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,333$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.33 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…eef9backed Yes | 9c | 1,173$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 15c | 1,158$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 13c | 1,125$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,110$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,027$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 11c | 1,026$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +721.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6a…d38abacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 17cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5928backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 2c | 929.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…edefbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…3d5ebacked Yes | 3c | 900$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 5c | 811.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 9c | 808$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…2b0fbacked Yes | 9c | 794.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.