Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb6dfaa2cf5abc9d47ebc867b984a7715104944249274e8a483a2e17473e5f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,173,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,141,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,173,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,741 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 1,441,278$14,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,670.89 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 62c | 920,434$569,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351,081.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 10c | 786,977$77,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77,319.82 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 13c | 778,536$100,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,849.89 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 8c | 506,985$42,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,866.35 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 13c | 472,950$59,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,736.05 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 16c | 452,020$70,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,482.39 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 4c | 444,747$19,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,582.52 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 8c | 387,827$30,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,896.6 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 5c | 369,759$18,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,989.8 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 56c | 272,311$151,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151,757.77 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 3c | 270,323$8,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,959.1 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 1c | 254,987$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.71 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 20c | 238,773$47,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,099.42 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 7c | 213,920$15,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,714.57 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 19c | 208,074$38,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,994.56 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 6c | 204,427$12,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,481.57 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…a549backed Yes | 6c | 201,140$11,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,540 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 16c | 196,853$31,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,406.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…6fddbacked No | 62c | 193,159$120,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,132.53 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 38c | 134,375$51,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,227.23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 132,075$24,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,906.31 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 12c | 131,969$15,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,729.4 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…b55dbacked Yes | 2c | 131,607$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 126,000$19,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,784.79 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 32c | 107,549$34,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,469.94 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked No | 74c | 105,300$77,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,377.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 79c | 103,283$81,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,395.14 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 1c | 99,522$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…d0b1backed Yes | 37c | 99,169$36,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,234.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 2c | 98,771$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 33c | 97,526$32,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,525.77 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 21c | 96,802$20,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,228.47 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 61c | 93,803$57,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,444.44 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 62c | 82,143$50,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,404.18 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 39c | 81,182$31,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,362.86 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 16c | 77,610$12,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,317.79 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 28c | 70,160$19,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,428.75 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 18c | 67,998$12,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,175.83 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 79c | 67,687$53,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,395.31 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 3c | 66,720$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.98 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…7674backed No | 66c | 63,845$41,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,930.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 29c | 63,274$18,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,643.1 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 19c | 62,708$11,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,849.26 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 45c | 62,027$27,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,836.37 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5304…f920backed Yes | 16c | 60,644$9,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,854.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 21c | 56,809$11,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,741.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 73c | 55,667$40,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,862.97 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…9ad1backed No | 55c | 55,000$30,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,750 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 14c | 54,887$7,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,803.91 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 10c | 54,534$5,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,453.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7516…8bebbacked No | 73c | 52,983$38,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,098.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 8c | 51,635$4,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 41c | 50,695$20,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,851.19 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 27c | 50,313$13,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,613.27 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…8251backed No | 74c | 50,000$36,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,052.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 3c | 49,990$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 52c | 45,110$23,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,446.27 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 10c | 44,336$4,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 39c | 44,332$17,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,367.92 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…0534backed Yes | 19c | 43,500$8,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,181.43 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 17c | 41,231$7,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,024.99 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 28c | 41,119$11,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,557.94 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 3c | 40,934$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.69 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 41c | 40,000$16,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,399.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 36c | 38,733$14,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,047.7 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 17c | 38,600$6,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,737.28 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 40c | 37,800$15,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,130.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 16c | 37,209$6,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,065.56 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 34c | 34,880$11,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,896.63 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 16c | 34,113$5,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,548.99 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 38c | 33,520$12,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,809.73 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 78c | 33,392$25,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,428.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 14c | 33,335$4,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,798.74 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 5c | 32,896$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,595.33 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12c…f2d4backed No | 69c | 32,764$22,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,077.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…5238backed Yes | 2c | 32,269$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb4…7b57backed Yes | 36c | 31,994$11,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,538.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 17c | 31,194$5,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,396.01 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 56c | 30,000$16,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,890 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 31c | 29,455$9,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,255.37 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 41c | 29,172$11,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,887.42 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 73c | 27,970$20,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,551.89 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 19c | 27,848$5,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,257.92 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Yes | 34c | 27,682$9,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,505.16 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 31c | 26,787$8,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,373.93 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…ef1bbacked No | 66c | 26,703$17,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,076.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 36c | 26,239$9,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,386.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +264.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 45c | 25,713$11,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,582.29 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed No | 79c | 25,500$20,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,252 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 78c | 25,453$19,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,704.31 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 2c | 25,321$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.19 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 16c | 25,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 40c | 24,608$9,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,745.37 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 29c | 23,646$6,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,812.04 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…4818backed No | 66c | 23,379$15,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,859.36 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 25c | 23,094$5,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,859.88 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked No | 60c | 22,612$13,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,062.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…680dbacked Yes | 39c | 22,609$8,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,713.94 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 63c | 22,195$14,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,101.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.