Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc6689d0f6d57ea42168836712237c7308b3e0118c8914d31b6126d0f3254c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,051,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,319,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,051,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 13c | 935,268$123,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123,143.4 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 15c | 912,601$140,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140,906.15 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 20c | 680,161$134,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134,466.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 652,292$131,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131,288.94 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 581,781$6,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,930.39 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…e798backed Yes | 12c | 570,946$69,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,201.72 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 5c | 387,900$18,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,079.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 12c | 359,653$42,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,753.31 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 18c | 295,779$52,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,617.93 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 11c | 290,617$33,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,143.76 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 17c | 283,326$47,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,366.59 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 19c | 252,531$48,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,802.53 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 16c | 252,300$40,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,752.6 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 15c | 243,285$37,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,391.29 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 15c | 225,163$33,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,452.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 22c | 222,558$49,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,417.61 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 16c | 215,557$33,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,422.12 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…58c3backed Yes | 12c | 214,269$25,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,387.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 75c | 205,092$153,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,075.86 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…971bbacked Yes | 5c | 202,870$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +291.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 30c | 195,798$58,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,004.41 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked No | 78c | 183,888$142,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,964.42 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 76c | 183,669$140,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,400.67 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacd…c1ebbacked Yes | 2c | 157,552$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 153,509$29,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,555.31 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 24c | 152,199$35,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,870.58 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…d0b1backed Yes | 10c | 148,994$15,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,297.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 15c | 142,877$20,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,778.01 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 141,251$27,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,839.68 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 21c | 136,284$28,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,172.83 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 16c | 120,000$19,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,399.99 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 19c | 115,918$21,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,501.24 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 4c | 111,000$4,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655.55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ff…4818backed No | 77c | 103,095$79,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,238.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 19c | 101,487$19,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,490.05 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 16c | 98,170$15,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,692.25 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 96,607$19,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,585.31 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 21c | 89,993$18,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,739.05 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 13c | 82,400$10,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,712.98 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed Yes | 8c | 81,931$6,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,751.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked Yes | 23c | 81,133$18,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,697.53 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…8178backed No | 77c | 80,674$61,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,714.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 77c | 75,717$58,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,571.17 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 26c | 72,522$19,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,204.11 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 18c | 71,841$13,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,275.36 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 80c | 69,975$55,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,300.74 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes | 22c | 68,940$15,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,359.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…8278backed Yes | 1c | 68,591$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 18c | 67,686$12,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,515.96 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 4c | 67,298$2,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,971.92 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 17c | 63,730$11,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,060.26 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…ed4fbacked Yes | 18c | 63,395$11,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,287.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 26c | 61,343$16,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,064.17 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 22c | 58,759$12,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,987.26 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 76c | 57,007$43,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,642.15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 26c | 56,827$14,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,649.62 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Yes | 1c | 56,629$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 56,166$7,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,890.13 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 10c | 56,079$5,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,560.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 18c | 55,621$10,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,272.26 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6892…4e41backed Yes | 18c | 55,556$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…7083backed Yes | 18c | 55,556$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3ec2backed No | 76c | 55,519$42,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,221.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b9…7577backed Yes | 21c | 55,189$11,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,523.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 25c | 54,454$13,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,584.44 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 17c | 53,469$9,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,261.57 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…64febacked Yes | 16c | 52,653$8,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,244.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +428.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 21c | 50,705$10,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,529.6 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 20c | 50,435$10,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,026.92 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Yes | 22c | 50,428$11,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,260.06 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 6c | 50,000$2,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.99 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 18c | 49,844$8,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,996.77 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…9ad1backed No | 75c | 48,305$36,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,065.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 21c | 47,183$9,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,856.85 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 20c | 46,569$9,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,218.24 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 19c | 44,833$8,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,666.45 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 21c | 43,896$9,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,280.52 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Yes | 14c | 43,063$5,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,932.13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 20c | 40,499$8,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,111.03 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…c716backed Yes | 8c | 39,695$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…736bbacked No | 78c | 39,288$30,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,604.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 19c | 39,103$7,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,355.64 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 23c | 38,576$8,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,803.88 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed Yes | 13c | 38,377$4,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,942.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 19c | 37,624$7,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,118.85 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb380…dae3backed Yes | 25c | 35,726$9,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,089.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 19c | 35,514$6,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,579.37 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 13c | 35,197$4,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,732.17 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 19c | 35,142$6,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,827.58 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 19c | 34,574$6,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,591.11 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…0bafbacked Yes | 18c | 33,806$6,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,085 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 15c | 32,843$4,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,881.85 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 1c | 32,486$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.43 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 9c | 31,754$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,964.8 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…8961backed Yes | 16c | 31,650$5,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,064 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…d9c8backed Yes | 16c | 31,600$5,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,056 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…715dbacked Yes | 16c | 31,550$5,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,048 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…05cfbacked Yes | 19c | 31,031$5,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,895.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc065…0fcabacked Yes | 0c | 30,857$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.