Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x421bc1929df1429cf2cb94f80c1ce6a3ed0d1f0b7a2749b9890075f94eb549e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,930,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,782,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,930,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,012 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 13c | 1,183,444$154,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154,051.21 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,020,894$122,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,573.56 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…8510backed No | 80c | 879,539$702,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177,474.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 755,705$79,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,337.89 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 17c | 727,455$122,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,844.9 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…9e4dbacked No | 61c | 560,520$340,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220,429.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 17c | 417,941$71,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,124.42 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 28c | 400,384$111,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111,605.78 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 18c | 398,427$71,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,164.43 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 376,781$65,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,600.87 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 15c | 315,921$46,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,311.51 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 23c | 294,531$67,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67,635.09 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 19c | 262,072$50,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,932.34 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 25c | 255,650$64,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64,108.6 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 16c | 229,172$35,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,574.26 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 228,650$47,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,390.66 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 39c | 226,624$89,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,017.64 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 55c | 210,188$115,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115,108.95 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 17c | 208,640$35,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,860.25 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…96babacked Yes | 23c | 191,649$44,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,079.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 15c | 175,322$26,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,958.45 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 18c | 155,459$27,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,836.01 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 33c | 146,530$48,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,138.75 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 46c | 146,188$66,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,485.43 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 23c | 135,580$30,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,582.64 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 11c | 130,322$14,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,435.6 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 64c | 119,566$76,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,215.54 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 44c | 114,142$50,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,202.11 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 16c | 112,083$18,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,130.35 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 16c | 111,935$17,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,512.65 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 40c | 109,567$44,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,278.69 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 13c | 108,808$14,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,339.3 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 22c | 108,594$24,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,296.78 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 34c | 107,679$36,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,511.95 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 3c | 104,071$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes | 18c | 103,639$18,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,251.66 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +406.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 25c | 99,919$24,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,882.96 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 38c | 98,150$37,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,340.11 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes | 12c | 96,000$11,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,319.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 35c | 91,572$32,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,310.26 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf101…f994backed No | 79c | 88,974$70,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,904.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 25c | 87,016$21,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,704.1 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 34c | 86,247$29,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,006.98 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 10c | 84,714$8,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,105.38 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 20c | 83,520$16,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,511.21 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 2c | 80,304$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Yes | 13c | 79,639$10,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,442.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 58c | 79,500$45,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,830.42 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 18c | 77,055$13,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,743.7 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 22c | 73,694$16,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,483.77 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 28c | 73,233$20,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,513.45 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 55c | 72,470$40,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000.85 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc114…cdaebacked No | 71c | 70,420$49,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,421.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…cd91backed Yes | 17c | 68,588$11,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,660 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 40c | 67,009$26,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,520.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 14c | 66,970$9,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,361.64 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 14c | 66,132$8,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,958.93 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 18c | 65,833$11,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,877.15 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 17c | 64,826$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000.42 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed No | 79c | 61,380$48,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,040.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 3c | 60,816$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,011.43 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed No | 78c | 57,655$45,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,654.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 9c | 55,872$4,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,877.87 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 33c | 55,550$18,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,264.8 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 29c | 54,439$15,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,710.87 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 19c | 53,000$10,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,246.64 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked No | 49c | 50,344$24,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,572.5 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 34c | 48,214$16,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,178.61 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 20c | 48,046$9,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,637.38 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 11c | 44,109$5,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,010.11 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 17c | 44,016$7,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,687.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 58c | 43,152$25,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,059.49 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked No | 57c | 41,494$23,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,914.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9301…3b67backed No | 68c | 39,985$27,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,659.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…33dbbacked No | 45c | 39,950$18,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,786.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 2c | 38,499$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…ffcdbacked Yes | 13c | 37,382$4,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,913.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…ab08backed No | 69c | 35,846$24,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,266.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 14c | 35,476$4,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,983.82 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 18c | 34,925$6,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,145.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 73c | 34,337$25,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,162.72 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed No | 42c | 33,999$14,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,582.13 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 2c | 33,566$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.52 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 40c | 32,521$12,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,886.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 51c | 32,280$16,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,585.73 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 23c | 31,878$7,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,222.7 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…ba79backed No | 69c | 31,800$22,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,746.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 4c | 31,710$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.01 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 26c | 31,630$8,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,211.15 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…b4b4backed No | 72c | 31,490$22,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,776.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…6314backed No | 75c | 31,453$23,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,758.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 42c | 31,366$13,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,138.75 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 71c | 30,989$22,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,923.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 65c | 30,769$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,769.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 30,520$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.01 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 16c | 29,810$4,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,736.96 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 17c | 29,286$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.96 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked No | 74c | 27,693$20,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,219.18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 19c | 27,500$5,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,355 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…9803backed No | 79c | 27,218$21,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,845.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.