Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda519921a7090298cbdc56ee838a403a5193c2b3f637aef3e154e52de7b5e79c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,658,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,877,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,658,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 848 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd953…e8e9backed No | 0c | 1,210,583$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…9059backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 45,438$33,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,948.52 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…1e9bbacked No | 0c | 39,273$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…9c42backed Yes | 75c | 36,588$27,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,239.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…e816backed No | 57c | 29,820$16,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,997.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 0c | 29,701$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 2c | 29,697$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 34c | 28,931$9,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,835.72 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc274…1ab7backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…1508backed Yes | 65c | 22,928$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,927.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 39c | 20,261$7,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,861.64 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245a…bf25backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 60c | 19,161$11,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,726.07 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 45c | 18,948$8,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,348.01 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 6c | 18,442$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.14 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 66c | 16,514$10,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,654.27 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 2c | 15,461$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 15,177$8,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,412.97 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 2c | 15,109$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.99 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 59c | 15,000$8,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,828.77 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 53c | 13,284$7,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,273.74 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 51c | 12,100$6,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,868.96 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 23c | 11,823$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730.17 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked No | 53c | 11,318$6,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,023.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 36c | 11,300$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.19 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…1fe7backed No | 52c | 11,275$5,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,838.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…d449backed No | 49c | 10,238$5,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,013.85 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed Yes | 68c | 10,221$6,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.97 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed No | 41c | 10,186$4,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,141.53 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…1076backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc2…7999backed Yes | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 65c | 10,000$6,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.93 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…8d7ebacked No | 0c | 9,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked No | 57c | 9,664$5,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,498.62 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f1…a6a0backed Yes | 51c | 9,411$4,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed No | 0c | 9,271$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 55c | 8,888$4,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.56 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed No | 6c | 8,760$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 51c | 8,148$4,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked No | 6c | 7,990$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +804.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…5382backed Yes | 56c | 7,933$4,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +176%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 5c | 7,590$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.2 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed No | 50c | 7,300$3,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…2094backed No | 2c | 7,215$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 67c | 7,190$4,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.73 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…05c3backed No | 1c | 6,910$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 6,867$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed No | 6c | 6,578$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.12 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…d7c6backed Yes | 60c | 6,380$3,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked No | 36c | 6,310$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.49 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 51c | 6,295$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,195.15 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 42c | 6,270$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.37 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b0…e14cbacked Yes | 49c | 5,956$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055.74 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…2948backed Yes | 65c | 5,560$3,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 56c | 5,500$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,080 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 68c | 5,166$3,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.18 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 74c | 5,107$3,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…4898backed No | 4c | 4,913$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 47c | 4,764$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.96 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 31c | 4,622$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.74 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 36c | 4,582$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.07 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 50c | 4,352$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked No | 5c | 4,310$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.39 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 46c | 4,235$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.41 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…2282backed No | 58c | 4,204$2,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,438.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 51c | 4,200$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 4,117$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.46 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 54c | 4,109$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.05 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 61c | 4,089$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.98 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…39b0backed Yes | 40c | 4,011$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.61 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed Yes | 70c | 4,000$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 25c | 4,000$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.58 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.84 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2570…542ebacked No | 26c | 3,969$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…1c82backed No | 40c | 3,913$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 47c | 3,756$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.43 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3dc…9ee9backed No | 58c | 3,627$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 66c | 3,406$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.85 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…2cc6backed No | 34c | 3,391$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 57c | 3,200$1,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.39 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed Yes | 46c | 3,174$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.96 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.1wins | +0.58per pick | 35cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 3c | 3,172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 49c | 3,080$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.5 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked No | 1c | 3,043$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…4c09backed Yes | 42c | 2,986$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.7 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes | 41c | 2,945$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.65 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 59c | 2,904$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.09 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60de…af2dbacked No | 48c | 2,777$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de1…816fbacked No | 4c | 2,756$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked Yes | 58c | 2,700$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…28d7backed No | 4c | 2,675$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c26…a23cbacked No | 50c | 2,588$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…f9d7backed No | 28c | 2,569$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 55c | 2,446$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.09 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed Yes | 42c | 2,400$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 74c | 2,340$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.16 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.