Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd86a816093fcd0a0e1ca440bc5ce199bd3c5a8d6139e044b076958164f8c5423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,370,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,175,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,370,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 8,995 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5925…b194backed No | 0c | 13,250,000$29,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,500 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed No | 0c | 10,103,817$15,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,494.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed No | 0c | 5,050,000$10,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed No | 0c | 4,897,000$6,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,246.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…c3dfbacked No | 0c | 4,132,513$4,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,719.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…229cbacked No | 0c | 3,358,013$8,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,981.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…2ba0backed No | 24c | 3,344,329$787,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787,420.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…703cbacked No | 0c | 3,000,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb848…62c0backed No | 0c | 2,380,579$7,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,946 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…155dbacked No | 33c | 2,010,728$666,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666,350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 71c | 1,962,194$1,393,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568,343.92 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked No | 2c | 1,843,009$37,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,166.84 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed No | 1c | 1,651,553$18,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,072.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 12c | 1,642,063$204,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437,104.02 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 1,623,346$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.07 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 50c | 1,620,872$807,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807,772.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa91a…165bbacked No | 0c | 1,574,829$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,573,458$375,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197,475.44 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 60c | 1,505,856$900,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604,917.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,285,944$189,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096,284.49 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd953…e8e9backed No | 0c | 1,250,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 22c | 1,235,091$270,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964,912.57 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed No | 18c | 1,233,753$221,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221,976.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 13c | 1,131,658$147,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983,662.66 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 0c | 1,077,025$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,454.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…657ebacked No | 1c | 1,075,894$7,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,339 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 1c | 1,003,659$5,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,055.15 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…1076backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x319a…4e05backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…ec11backed No | 0c | 978,751$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…ef39backed No | 0c | 965,819$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 71c | 895,557$639,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255,977.43 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 31c | 859,156$265,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593,190.53 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…4d42backed No | 1c | 852,244$6,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,153.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5882…55a2backed No | 18c | 777,259$141,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141,184.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…a067backed No | 0c | 745,111$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 17c | 726,786$120,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606,016.36 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 43c | 710,381$302,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407,746.88 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 20c | 700,172$136,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563,193.02 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…e058backed No | 1c | 670,037$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 14c | 669,747$90,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578,917.99 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 19c | 662,508$128,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533,958.25 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 13c | 661,125$88,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572,911.59 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 4c | 651,274$28,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,026.05 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 42c | 616,917$260,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356,785.83 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 47c | 613,194$291,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322,131.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 48c | 610,993$296,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314,732.6 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 10c | 610,135$61,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549,039.41 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…f864backed No | 0c | 606,500$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 49c | 600,438$296,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304,188.23 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20a…642fbacked No | 1c | 586,636$5,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,615.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked No | 6c | 563,667$34,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,376.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b85…2e56backed No | 0c | 549,670$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 38c | 522,161$197,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324,204.91 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 14c | 514,728$70,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443,845.84 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…cdb9backed No | 4c | 514,501$22,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,613.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe269…5af6backed No | 0c | 505,000$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…8d68backed No | 0c | 499,400$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 14c | 471,265$63,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407,343.78 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba3…71ccbacked No | 0c | 457,959$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…3047backed No | 0c | 428,400$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e0…19b9backed No | 0c | 425,050$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 73c | 405,000$295,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109,007.61 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa551…e050backed Yes | 8c | 404,729$33,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370,925.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…6314backed No | 9c | 398,179$36,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,123.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 70c | 390,879$275,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,660.17 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 45c | 365,449$163,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202,197.7 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 65c | 364,008$236,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,081.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 29c | 353,412$101,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252,411.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…dea0backed No | 1c | 344,159$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,176.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166d…e076backed No | 1c | 337,376$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,325.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495e…9a96backed No | 0c | 335,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4b…134fbacked No | 0c | 333,000$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 62c | 331,008$204,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,531.39 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 0c | 328,300$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.09 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 23c | 322,146$74,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247,817.1 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…2649backed No | 73c | 321,540$235,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235,279.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked No | 0c | 321,115$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 64c | 318,848$203,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,129.61 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked No | 30c | 314,211$94,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,005.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed Yes | 74c | 310,464$231,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,327.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 78c | 307,519$239,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,996.72 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…e125backed No | 2c | 307,066$7,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,546.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1c…02bbbacked No | 1c | 299,120$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…00f8backed No | 33c | 297,257$98,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,789.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 292,659$159,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133,145.21 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 18c | 287,182$51,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235,281.5 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked No | 0c | 283,992$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 36c | 282,121$100,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181,304.47 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a723backed No | 0c | 276,033$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 51c | 274,328$138,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,504.09 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…3fd0backed No | 1c | 267,357$2,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,191.26 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 1c | 266,879$2,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.29 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed No | 38c | 265,807$101,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,962.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 18c | 263,091$48,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214,480.18 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 43c | 260,577$112,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147,903.23 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1210…7337backed No | 34c | 256,559$86,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,266.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 50c | 254,648$127,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127,169.66 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 39c | 252,303$99,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152,959.57 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 27c | 250,550$66,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184,120.95 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.