TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7500…567f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
510
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT36113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 361 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.4
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.88
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.58
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.95
Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.94
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.31
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+350.5%+$55.3
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+429.2%+$177.3
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.93
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.16
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.25
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.2
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.89
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.68
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$359.13
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.28
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.73
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.84
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.7
Showing 25 of 361 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT3043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)backed Tabatha Ricci · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+365.1%+$383.23
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+136.2%+$163.83
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Joshua Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+207.6%+$207.39
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Waldo Cortes-Acosta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gilbert Burns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.9
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.97
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+132.9%+$35.16
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Renato Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$54
Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$28.98
Will the announcers say "White House" or "Trump" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+83%+$13.51
Will the announcers say "Dividend" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$3.95
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$9.25
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.72
O/U 3.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$45.45
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Michael Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
UFC 326: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Brunno Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$95.65
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Xiao Long · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$32.37
UFC 326: Cody Brundage vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Cody Brundage · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$17.8
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+91.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.78
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$448.25
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.24
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.48
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+70.3%+$29.26
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.82
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+2,645.8%+$388.94
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+110.5%+$19.89
Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.1
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38.5
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+590.2%+$237.11
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30.05
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+352.2%+$202.42
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.84
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$23.47
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$12.12
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$25.67
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+52.7%+$15.28
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+89.5%+$11.53
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+41.4%+$13.66
Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+123.1%+$17.23
Will Trump say "Nasty" this week? (January 25)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$95.03
Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" this week? (January 25)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will Trump say "Insane Asylum" this week? (January 25)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$19.3
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.75
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.1
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.85
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$25.11
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.24
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+452.4%+$354.61
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.86
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+158.5%+$44.15
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.67
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.72
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.07
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.69
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or higher on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.99
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+255.6%+$30.56
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.1
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.38
All 16 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT140%0 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.07
Will "Iran" or "Iranian" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.89
Will "Opera" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.65
Will "Mom" be said at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will between 5 and 8 participants make a final pair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Ham Ye-jin make a final pair in Single's Inferno: Season 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Lee Sung-hoon make a final pair in Single's Inferno: Season 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$51.07
Will Jo I-geon make a final pair in Single's Inferno: Season 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$27.2
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.66
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$171.18
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$144.35
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$208.96
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$185.43
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.86
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.36
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.8
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$8.68
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.88
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.52
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+118.9%+$44.18
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.17
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12.11
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.5
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+103.6%+$10.93
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+116%+$21.57
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+140.1%+$22.51
Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.67
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.15
Will Susan Collins vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$25.15
Will Rick Scott vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.77
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.92
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+368.9%+$38.83
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.78
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$64.36
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+815%+$233.66
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.17
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.19
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.46
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Dario" or "Amodei" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.86
Will Jensen Huang say "Data Center" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Jensen Huang say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 10+ times at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.93
Will "Insurance" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+361.6%+$46.72
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$23.52
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$13.85
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$25.8
Will "New York" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+175.8%+$68.36
Will "Groq" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18.5
Will "California" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will "Venezuela" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$45.22
Will "Maduro" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$34.19
All 13 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Transition" this week? (January 18)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+69.2%+$17.31
Will Trump say "Low-IQ" this week? (January 18)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+64.9%+$15.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.