Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,446,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,149,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,446,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,551 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 15c | 758,307$110,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,346.58 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes | 10c | 560,219$54,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,003.76 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +406.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 21c | 439,547$92,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,946.65 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 9c | 424,907$40,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,041.81 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 6c | 370,951$23,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,361.49 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 11c | 333,863$37,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,463.53 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 329,913$3,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.78 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 6c | 293,154$18,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,196.71 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 7c | 278,306$18,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,273.83 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…0a9ebacked Yes | 9c | 214,062$18,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,725.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed Yes | 13c | 198,452$26,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,171.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 17c | 188,766$32,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,570.15 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 172,594$23,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,765.82 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 12c | 167,272$19,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,534.69 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 2c | 161,569$2,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,740.58 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 10c | 160,250$15,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,670.61 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 4c | 155,152$6,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,259.06 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 120,552$19,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,768.22 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 13c | 120,129$16,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,030.63 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 12c | 114,025$13,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,622.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 2c | 110,748$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Yes | 3c | 110,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,399.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 106,078$12,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,451.82 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 105,905$17,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,220.58 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 2c | 100,583$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.2 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 14c | 100,012$13,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,521.68 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 8c | 97,176$7,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,372.87 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 15c | 92,547$14,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,104.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 13c | 92,542$11,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,614.12 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 12c | 83,704$10,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,272.27 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 15c | 76,471$11,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,591.51 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 22c | 74,736$16,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,351.92 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 8c | 73,467$6,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,180 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 19c | 72,036$13,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,611.45 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 27c | 70,319$18,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,824.99 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 3c | 70,045$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.01 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 8c | 68,125$5,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,258.39 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…fb62backed Yes | 3c | 63,499$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 5c | 63,033$3,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,295.31 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Yes | 5c | 61,776$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.28 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…1a88backed Yes | 12c | 61,417$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350.26 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 17c | 60,165$10,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,214.25 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 58,889$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.17 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 17c | 58,029$9,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,818.99 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 6c | 55,488$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,554.72 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…a4fcbacked Yes | 2c | 52,941$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 8c | 52,474$4,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,019.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 19c | 51,251$9,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,861.33 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 51,141$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,632.85 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 17c | 49,616$8,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,449.98 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 16c | 48,973$7,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,786.41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 6c | 43,836$2,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.6 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 16c | 41,968$6,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,630.35 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 9c | 40,053$3,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523.94 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 0c | 39,555$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked Yes | 6c | 35,999$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.24 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 17c | 35,322$5,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,961.88 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 6c | 34,824$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 34,300$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,267.38 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 11c | 33,904$3,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.08 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 9c | 33,695$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.9 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 17c | 33,681$5,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,607.92 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 21c | 33,430$6,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,935.9 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 10c | 32,071$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 5c | 31,733$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580.75 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 31,414$6,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,442.39 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes | 15c | 31,112$4,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,524.88 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 2c | 30,052$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.96 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…a1b4backed Yes | 1c | 29,836$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 12c | 27,005$3,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.09 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 22c | 26,841$5,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,827.5 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…0edcbacked Yes | 9c | 25,506$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked Yes | 13c | 25,012$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,243.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…2649backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 3c | 23,332$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 2c | 23,021$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63c…225fbacked Yes | 5c | 22,690$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +258.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 13c | 22,474$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.32 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked Yes | 15c | 22,309$3,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,297.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf978…f941backed Yes | 2c | 22,000$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 14c | 21,690$3,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,044.33 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…6edebacked Yes | 15c | 21,629$3,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,247.23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 13c | 20,852$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.49 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 9c | 20,677$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 16c | 20,555$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.56 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 18c | 20,554$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.99 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 8c | 20,443$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.44 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 9c | 20,384$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.54 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 9c | 20,062$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.05 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 14c | 20,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 20,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 13c | 19,378$2,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.76 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed Yes | 6c | 19,303$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 20c | 18,675$3,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.39 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…4530backed Yes | 10c | 18,454$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 78c | 17,000$13,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 12c | 16,004$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.15 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 12c | 15,937$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904.37 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 15c | 15,885$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.07 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.