Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x667c01a18ac1efb8300ce2c4d9fd573275cb633344148675beee8e097db193c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,134,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,968,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,134,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 3c | 537,011$13,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,514.99 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 1c | 522,181$4,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,933.43 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 2c | 331,415$6,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,517.17 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 4c | 181,390$7,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,289.54 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed Yes | 4c | 173,251$6,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,643.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 7c | 149,445$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…bdfebacked Yes | 0c | 106,705$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 3c | 103,442$3,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 6c | 65,000$4,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,021.1 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 1c | 61,189$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.13 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 4c | 51,969$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Yes | 1c | 49,283$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 17cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 4c | 49,143$1,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 3c | 37,380$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.3 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 7c | 37,264$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,736.68 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…2649backed Yes | 0c | 35,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…2327backed Yes | 0c | 34,868$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 4c | 33,666$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.25 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 2c | 25,212$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.51 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 2c | 24,586$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 9c | 24,148$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.31 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,773$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 22,157$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 3c | 21,404$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.11 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…0690backed Yes | 6c | 21,025$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes | 2c | 20,676$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.08 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes | 0c | 18,750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +406.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 5c | 18,600$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.1 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 3c | 17,561$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.46 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,145$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.94 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 13,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 7c | 12,876$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.33 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…6edebacked Yes | 4c | 10,667$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 8c | 10,610$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.79 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 3c | 10,222$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.7 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…67dbbacked Yes | 4c | 10,218$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcca…436bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…3d5ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,571$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.47 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…e15abacked Yes | 2c | 7,842$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 4c | 7,795$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.27 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…86e3backed Yes | 4c | 7,512$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…d7f8backed Yes | 4c | 7,110$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,600$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 5c | 6,282$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.32 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 4c | 5,587$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.41 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2f…1a88backed Yes | 6c | 5,555$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 5,422$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 2c | 5,307$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,173$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 3c | 5,090$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 4c | 5,001$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.01 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f94…ddcbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,985$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 4,800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 4,666$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.84 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,630$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 11c | 4,545$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 3c | 4,444$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…913cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,167$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 2c | 3,999$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3c…0505backed Yes | 0c | 3,908$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…0edcbacked Yes | 10c | 3,790$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 8c | 3,623$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.86 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 6c | 3,559$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fc…90fabacked Yes | 4c | 3,526$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 9c | 3,431$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.88 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,259$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 6c | 3,231$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 4c | 3,217$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.6 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 1c | 3,139$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.35per pick | 11cpaid | +901%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…660ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,079$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed Yes | 4c | 3,078$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.65 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 5c | 3,038$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.69 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 4c | 2,981$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…67debacked Yes | 3c | 2,976$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…b0f4backed Yes | 9c | 2,600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 2,600$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,588$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.95 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9c…908abacked Yes | 5c | 2,552$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +172.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 4c | 2,194$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…42e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,127$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 2,015$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…122bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,870$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 8c | 1,854$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…7edbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,854$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 7c | 1,795$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2771…d030backed Yes | 18c | 1,692$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,650$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 4c | 1,539$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 4c | 1,528$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.