Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x087713ab2905e789c42c3fafdf747512f8d7883b7fab1ac554b703310c09d869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,643,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,793,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,643,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 399 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd953…e8e9backed No | 0c | 1,306,127$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 65c | 55,159$35,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,457.96 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 14c | 48,320$6,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,675.22 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed No | 2c | 39,650$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed No | 0c | 34,456$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked No | 0c | 32,500$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked No | 36c | 30,524$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +804.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 29c | 25,312$7,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,363.09 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 37c | 21,145$7,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,869.05 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 24c | 20,246$4,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,907.68 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…1076backed No | 0c | 19,997$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…f3adbacked Yes | 64c | 19,243$12,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,927.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 1c | 17,373$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 67c | 17,273$11,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,779.91 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cd…079bbacked No | 41c | 16,286$6,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,716.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 3c | 16,281$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…094fbacked No | 0c | 15,103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 59c | 15,000$8,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…4898backed No | 2c | 14,193$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 16c | 13,990$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked No | 43c | 12,654$5,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,443.95 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 1c | 11,140$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…2282backed No | 41c | 10,309$4,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,187.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 31c | 9,905$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.94 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…4b4abacked Yes | 62c | 8,899$5,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,411.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…bf28backed No | 0c | 8,357$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…384ebacked Yes | 66c | 8,200$5,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,781.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 4c | 8,036$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…9059backed No | 1c | 7,505$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…1fe7backed No | 39c | 7,000$2,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,759.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 26c | 6,924$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.63 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed No | 16c | 6,759$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.92 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…b0f4backed Yes | 56c | 6,611$3,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.87 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 40c | 6,438$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.37 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 26c | 6,341$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.22 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,005$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…da6ebacked Yes | 64c | 5,920$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120.26 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 60c | 5,901$3,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.57 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 30c | 5,509$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.05 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…54a5backed No | 3c | 5,335$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked Yes | 77c | 4,708$3,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7eb…31c3backed No | 25c | 4,575$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…eb68backed No | 43c | 4,291$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…7f96backed No | 2c | 4,121$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…0919backed No | 0c | 4,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef1…0627backed No | 8c | 4,015$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.27 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,994$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 75c | 3,978$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.87 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 9c | 3,793$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 74c | 3,597$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.22 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 64c | 3,515$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.35 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaf…0ba7backed No | 1c | 3,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8f…a706backed Yes | 76c | 3,400$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…7343backed Yes | 65c | 3,400$2,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed No | 35c | 3,384$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.57 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked No | 2c | 3,236$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b3…c5eabacked Yes | 79c | 3,200$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,105$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.01 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…137ebacked No | 2c | 3,077$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 3,036$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 3c | 2,997$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,972$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 67c | 2,965$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.48 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked No | 36c | 2,910$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b0…e14cbacked Yes | 62c | 2,908$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.21 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 59c | 2,786$1,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…60c5backed Yes | 57c | 2,681$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 18c | 2,600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed Yes | 74c | 2,501$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 75c | 2,489$1,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.51 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…ffcabacked No | 43c | 2,348$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 67c | 2,300$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.07 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d27…331cbacked No | 44c | 2,293$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 68c | 2,049$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.71 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked No | 1c | 2,047$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 27c | 2,014$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.89 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 2,007$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…7101backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…edbfbacked No | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60de…af2dbacked No | 36c | 1,907$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 71c | 1,825$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.25 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,800$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…bc1dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,790$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 64c | 1,773$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.19 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 66c | 1,700$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 71c | 1,697$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.42 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…37acbacked Yes | 65c | 1,660$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…32cfbacked No | 44c | 1,614$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174b…5a55backed No | 38c | 1,614$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.47 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,586$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.36 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 16c | 1,437$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,394$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,394$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 36c | 1,371$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.41 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 2c | 1,327$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 38c | 1,307$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.73 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 74c | 1,281$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.11 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…1c82backed No | 27c | 1,269$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?this page
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.