TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x226b…7343

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
115
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst Premier League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT2944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$70.94
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.69
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$103.03
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$141.18
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$43.25
Will Belgium vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$53.67
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$127.87
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT2839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
Premier League — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$11.6
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.53
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.78
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+64%+$61.85
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$9.3
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+86.9%+$16.81
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+52%+$25.39
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$19.66
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$11.94
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.36
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$47.48
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$19.34
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$48.4
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+334.8%+$63.51
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$48.8
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.3
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.17
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.57
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.5
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$19.44
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$60
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.5
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$70
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+124.1%+$41.83
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+185.7%+$32.5
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+53.8%+$17.08
Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+32.5%+$31.95
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$88.07
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$20.3
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+44.6%+$61.81
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$24.71
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.12
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,395Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$605
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,941Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$2,610.81
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,213Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$1,186.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$340
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$845Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$655
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.8
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.77
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$92
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,007Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+134.1%+$1,350.61
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$38.95
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.62
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.94
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$4.35
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$6.46
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.94
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$49.2
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+156.4%+$61
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+252.6%+$137.95
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+42.9%+$21.43
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+150%+$60
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$43
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.43
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+60.7%+$298.16
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.78
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$56.1
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+37%+$13.5
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$85.49
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$985Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$302.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+29.9%+$29.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.