TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,967,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,036,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,967,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x768c…49c3backed Yes19c152,197$28,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,302.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977c…45f0backed Yes8c91,944$7,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,435.660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db1…f71abacked Yes9c44,908$4,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,215.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c41,736$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.682920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x844e…4f41backed Yes27c40,702$10,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,786.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-67.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c8…b9e6backed Yes18c40,590$7,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,278.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes6c40,091$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.7221035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes4c38,059$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.317020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes7c35,928$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.1914621.2%31 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c34,777$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.776311.3%8 W · 623 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes10c31,658$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.722570.8%2 W · 255 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e459backed Yes14c29,412$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Yes2c25,143$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.39520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes5c25,015$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.42100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745c…15fcbacked Yes18c22,279$4,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,117.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b7…c6c9backed Yes3c21,285$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes6c20,852$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.55634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff23…713ebacked Yes16c18,992$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f0…09febacked Yes4c18,978$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4853…fa56backed Yes10c18,820$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes7c17,744$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.226439.1%25 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes0c17,166$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.13714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-79.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67a…661bbacked Yes2c17,087$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes13c16,242$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.48728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251e…81bfbacked Yes7c16,071$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.131216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5f…3049backed Yes18c15,980$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc8…3627backed Yes7c15,954$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.012343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes5c15,531$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77811855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7dcd…d7e3backed Yes2c14,914$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf02d…efcfbacked Yes4c14,883$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes5c14,829$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.493946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd862…8c95backed Yes2c14,676$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-79.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a0e…a6fcbacked Yes15c14,613$2,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes4c14,473$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.76216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6512…213bbacked Yes29c13,644$3,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,933.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Yes9c13,068$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,17730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes8c12,537$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.161216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc297…72a1backed Yes8c12,313$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa22…3715backed Yes20c11,813$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,410.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb98…ced7backed Yes1c11,578$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d80…2070backed Yes4c11,523$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c10,781$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.822792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ef…92b6backed Yes5c10,595$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+55%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ce6…5cf2backed Yes10c10,540$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb95…d9eabacked Yes5c10,318$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0734…18dfbacked Yes32c10,199$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.2340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f9…5154backed Yes32c9,369$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes7c9,348$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.137611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cac…6f43backed Yes6c9,179$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.59616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-78.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes15c9,149$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.422729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e86…0fa7backed Yes1c9,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes11c8,808$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.31428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes23c8,644$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.841050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes6c8,448$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.68052.5%42 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes5c8,237$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.0125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf915…8720backed Yes1c8,156$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x631f…f062backed Yes2c8,060$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ce…16babacked Yes7c8,043$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes17c7,870$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.572114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3704…13b1backed Yes8c7,703$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes18c7,570$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16be…0b64backed Yes21c7,552$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,620.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe30…f6cebacked Yes0c7,461$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes9c7,424$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-80%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…450dbacked Yes10c7,353$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes12c6,721$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.884610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9859…2dd9backed Yes0c6,652$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes4c6,575$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes7c6,567$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.984835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c6,524$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.057510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c6,192$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.181,3686.8%93 W · 1,275 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes9c6,085$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c5,984$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.142522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes4c5,939$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.958754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f8…e72ebacked Yes11c5,914$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ad…e1ccbacked Yes6c5,769$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe55e…27e3backed Yes17c5,726$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c5,678$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.09831.2%1 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-82.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf19d…d3fbbacked Yes9c5,616$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c5,588$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.952003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes4c5,509$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.711323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-68%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34f1…4c93backed Yes14c5,371$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285c…3583backed Yes11c5,331$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071e…a103backed Yes5c5,216$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes25c5,180$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.943125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08fb…755ebacked Yes6c5,138$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2552…73d2backed Yes11c5,066$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.491910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes20c5,004$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c4,816$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.05600%0 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4277…3154backed Yes4c4,730$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes29c4,714$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+86.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Yes8c4,510$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…6fbabacked Yes8c4,390$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a52…bb22backed Yes2c4,361$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4517…34c2backed Yes5c4,271$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes13c4,241$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6411720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c4,223$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.382590%0 W · 259 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7788…99d2backed Yes7c4,210$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes12c4,181$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0faf…bd2cbacked Yes6c4,170$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.