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AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,245,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,301,498

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,245,078 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 387 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes1c236,286$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.46100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c109,130$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.692920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c99,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes1c92,806$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c88,283$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.076291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c65,836$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.172560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8524…2af7backed Yes1c61,206$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.6440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked Yes0c50,319$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50640%0 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes0c48,467$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.97120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes0c39,632$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6190%0 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes1c25,315$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed Yes0c22,538$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.586016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x706c…c97bbacked Yes0c19,446$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc46…899abacked Yes0c18,507$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes0c15,744$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.49911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes0c13,220$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.66110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b50…3bd1backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c11,490$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3214421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff6d…a325backed Yes0c11,307$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66dc…425abacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…e4efbacked Yes0c10,776$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.471233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c10,600$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6302…7917backed Yes1c9,708$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…d0e1backed Yes0c8,787$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…84eebacked Yes0c8,597$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd11…624abacked Yes3c8,277$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c6…8019backed Yes1c8,218$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.511010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a4…31f7backed Yes0c8,136$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c7,922$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.292522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a52…6d47backed Yes0c7,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf957…b37bbacked Yes0c7,675$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a96…c691backed Yes1c7,632$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.03110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes0c7,436$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.059839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67c8…ec9ebacked Yes0c7,283$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x464a…4aa5backed Yes1c7,046$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes0c6,869$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7236945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfbc…0680backed Yes2c6,809$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff2…727dbacked Yes2c6,590$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Yes0c6,211$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd10c…0645backed Yes1c6,126$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c6,089$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.82560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22bd…1ee3backed Yes2c6,085$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85dc…89f3backed Yes2c6,034$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c5,483$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.44591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a7…ce92backed Yes2c5,384$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb3c…a0f2backed Yes0c5,161$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c5,145$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.192792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…1acfbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d6…f172backed Yes2c4,966$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes2c4,886$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.73593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf54c…6fa3backed Yes1c4,623$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa347…cf8fbacked Yes2c4,612$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…cb17backed Yes0c4,594$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9670%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d9…39c6backed Yes1c4,551$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d6…0165backed Yes1c4,503$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac55…79adbacked Yes1c4,422$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…2fb1backed Yes1c4,391$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a5…caaabacked Yes0c4,390$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-49.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0718…f057backed Yes2c4,352$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e7…312fbacked Yes2c4,339$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…1654backed Yes2c4,307$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6687…62ccbacked Yes2c4,261$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4f…5aedbacked Yes2c4,253$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b51…afb7backed Yes2c4,168$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71d…bb94backed Yes2c4,112$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe943…80ccbacked Yes2c4,080$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8279…b4b4backed Yes2c3,984$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa646…8fe4backed Yes2c3,944$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf7…2fe5backed Yes2c3,937$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770b…bd69backed Yes2c3,893$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88f…ed3dbacked Yes2c3,871$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c3,861$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda22…e162backed Yes2c3,842$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6bd…8865backed Yes2c3,842$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x605a…0461backed Yes2c3,792$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2106…fa73backed Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9a…479cbacked Yes2c3,744$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8651backed Yes1c3,694$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes2c3,680$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.354610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2672…91a6backed Yes2c3,680$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5899…4623backed Yes0c3,630$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9e…de2abacked Yes2c3,527$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92c…393abacked Yes1c3,513$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes1c3,408$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf83…38a6backed Yes2c3,402$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec1…9a11backed Yes0c3,388$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x416f…84c3backed Yes1c3,285$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fc…9f99backed Yes2c3,261$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481a…8ee4backed Yes1c3,195$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c3,130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.12731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf90…a5d0backed Yes2c3,079$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb499…a59cbacked Yes2c3,043$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,915$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.911,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1feb…7db1backed Yes0c2,905$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes1c2,898$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.55796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc043…9f7cbacked Yes2c2,788$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5254…9722backed Yes0c2,745$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4156.7%1 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…a5b9backed Yes0c2,673$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…01a6backed Yes2c2,655$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.