TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,984,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,349,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,984,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 752 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4712…29ddbacked Yes77c39,286$30,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,144.223100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No12c27,138$3,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,144.16439.1%25 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x977c…45f0backed No7c17,316$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.4660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c14,600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.56291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No13c13,743$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.24610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eaa…c549backed No1c13,662$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No7c11,885$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.586216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x768c…49c3backed No11c10,857$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa32a…50d1backed Yes69c10,107$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.11450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…a0e7backed No11c10,000$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.68100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x129b…9274backed Yes67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked No3c9,093$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.24137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c7,799$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.72792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes62c7,676$4,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.0721035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e459backed No13c7,446$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No8c7,214$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.717611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes75c6,946$5,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes77c6,672$5,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.43043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No10c6,496$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.456737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No3c6,188$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.042133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No16c5,915$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.722114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f4…2e5ebacked Yes78c5,640$4,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.51580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a3…1807backed Yes71c5,624$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2188…7a8dbacked Yes72c5,589$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes73c5,437$3,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes79c5,106$4,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.1311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8df…abd7backed No6c5,097$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.67229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No9c4,474$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4046923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3704…13b1backed No12c4,150$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c06…ead9backed No12c4,063$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes77c3,899$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.231040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2b8ebacked Yes79c3,625$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes70c3,500$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No0c3,482$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.832560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No18c3,434$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.0120418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23f4…c234backed No30c3,334$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No10c3,151$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.341428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes65c3,129$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.3511720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…6bb7backed No11c3,050$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No11c2,970$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.85634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No6c2,776$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.94790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x997d…decfbacked Yes73c2,747$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c2,711$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.012522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes70c2,708$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No13c2,580$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.772729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b16…961fbacked Yes72c2,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No9c2,497$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.521711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No12c2,479$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.821388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f73…acefbacked No17c2,371$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.51811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-71.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x837a…77e1backed No10c2,286$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f0…09febacked No13c2,282$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x752d…d335backed Yes75c2,276$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No9c2,259$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.79545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cac…6f43backed No11c2,105$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-78.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked No11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x856c…0ef3backed No9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed No11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.992729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc484…8b5dbacked No9c1,900$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.97933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked No10c1,893$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.981010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-86.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No9c1,891$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.128826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c6…9719backed No10c1,856$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No18c1,851$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3420148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…5866backed Yes70c1,845$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…b979backed No30c1,809$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfc3…c657backed No13c1,800$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes68c1,648$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.281030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked No9c1,639$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked No18c1,576$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.492025%5 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x962d…dc4cbacked Yes70c1,574$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c1,567$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3126312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked No9c1,547$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.782152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f5…c967backed No7c1,517$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+141.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44fc…f9a8backed No9c1,507$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59be…5d9fbacked Yes63c1,450$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2503…9be5backed No7c1,430$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes70c1,429$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5522…c01ebacked Yes70c1,425$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No6c1,411$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.12591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No6c1,360$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.28933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No9c1,354$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.692045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f24…6db6backed Yes70c1,340$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x890e…8084backed Yes80c1,300$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd2…0d59backed Yes77c1,289$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13eabacked Yes75c1,281$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dba…d397backed No10c1,262$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.8270%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes64c1,250$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4733…8738backed No4c1,245$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.41911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-82.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No13c1,224$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8712050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a62…3a40backed No6c1,200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No10c1,180$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ddc…a869backed No17c1,173$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…b294backed Yes70c1,153$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf1e…83b3backed Yes76c1,145$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed No1c1,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+146.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d1…a152backed Yes70c1,095$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed No9c1,094$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-79.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes71c1,093$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.5610933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ce…57c4backed No9c1,088$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.921435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66d8…b965backed Yes74c1,081$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf401…f40dbacked Yes73c1,047$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.