TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x09e6…24a1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
204
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 54 out of 100; worst F1 at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT10933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 109 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$753.89
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$351Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.68
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,812Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$1,647.72
Will Claude be restored for international customers by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$16.07
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,277Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$390.14
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,473Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34%+$1,181.9
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,693Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.6%+$1,147.86
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.36
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$4,240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$2,472.65
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,166.86
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.06
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,243.96
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,123.2
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.17
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+109%+$208.59
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$542Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$541.84
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$61.79
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+1,014.1%+$692.37
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+190.5%+$799.13
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+457.5%+$323.11
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$869Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$597.74
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+36%+$449.57
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$771Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$483.52
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.87
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$231
Showing 25 of 109 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT4961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$84
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.98
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Will England win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.2
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$6.74
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Will England win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT358.6%3 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.25
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.68
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$557.05
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.39
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.58
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.85
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.59
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.33
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Vladimir Fedoseev win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.55
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.09
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.39
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.54
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.99
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.99
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+3,675.7%+$2,507.93
Will Hans Niemann win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.95
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.16
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$134.69
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.55
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.6
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.8
Will Leinier Domínguez win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.26
Will Ray Robson win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.16
Will Samuel Sevian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.54
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+138.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$79
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$113.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.